Concerns over the performance of southwest monsoon this year eased to a large extent on Thursday, with rainfall deficiency declining to just 5% from over 40% a fortnight ago, and cumulative rainfall being predicted to reach “normal” level in the next 48 hours.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects more rainfall over western, central and northern parts of the country in the next couple of days.
Officials said the higher precipitation would give a boost to sowing of paddy, pulses and cotton. Data released by the agriculture ministry last week said kharif sowing, for the first time in the current season, bridged an annual deficiency on Friday.
However, key paddy growing states – Jharkhand (-39%), Odisha (-28%), West Bengal (-35%) and Telangana (-39%) are still reporting hugely deficient rainfall. Paddy, pulses and cotton sowing areas have been down by 26.3%, 1.9% and 14%, respectively a week ago.
On July 1, the deficiency in overall rainfall was 9% of benchmark long period average (LPA). Rainfall between 96-104% of the LPA is considered “normal”.
This comes after India, as a whole, received “below normal” rainfall of 148.6 millimeter (mm) in June, against the LPA of 165.3 mm, a deficit of 10%. Except for the northwest region, all other regions recorded deficient rainfall last month.
The monsoon, after a delayed onset over Kerala coast (on June 8) in four years, has been in the “active” mode since the last two weeks. It covered the entire country on July 2, six days ahead of normal date.
In terms of geographical distribution, 60% of the divisions have received rainfall in the range of large excess to normal while 35% of areas have received deficient rainfall and around 5% area, the deficiency in the rainfall is large so far.
Region-wise monsoon deficiency so far has been 25% in the south peninsula and 4% in central India. Because of widespread rainfall caused by low pressure following the cyclonic storm ‘Biparjoy’ over Rajasthan and Gujarat, the northwest region has, however, received 37% more rainfall than “normal.”
IMD last week predicted ‘normal’ rainfall for the month of July, when around 40% of the monsoon precipitation typically occurs. This month is also the crucial period for sowing of kharif crops.
July rainfall, which has a share of more than 40% total precipitation in the monsoon season (June-Sept) is likely to be in the upper side of the “normal” range (94-106%) of the LPA , IMD had stated.
The IMD is sticking to its May 26 forecast that the precipitation in the whole of the current monsoon season (June-September) will be in the “normal” range, at 96% of the LPA.
In its forecast on Thursday stated ‘ongoing intense rainfall spell likely to continue over Konkan, Goa, Gujarat and is likely to decrease over south peninsular India by Friday. It also predicted enhanced rainfall activity over central India during the next three days and gradual increase over northern parts from July 9 for two days.
Key kharif crops like paddy, tur and groundnut are significantly rain-fed even now, though irrigation has improved significantly in the last two decades, and data in recent years doesn’t reveal any strong connection between food grains production and monsoon performance. Adequate monsoon rains help to ensure soil moisture needed for rabi crops like wheat, mustard and chana.