India will receive a ‘normal’ southwest monsoon (June-September) at 99% of the benchmark long period average (LPA), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday. If the forecast comes true, the country will receive normal rainfall from the annual phenomenon for the fourth year in a row.
Though India’s agriculture activities still depend significantly on the monsoon rainfall, increased irrigation facilities (45% of cultivable land is irrigated), improved farming practices and rising crop productivity are making the link between monsoon rains and farm output increasingly weak.
In its first forecast for the upcoming four-month (June-September) monsoon season, the IMD stated rainfall is likely to be 99% of LPA with a model error of plus/minus 5%. The LPA has now been revised to 87 centimetres, the average June-September rainfall during 1971-2020 from 88.1 cm earlier.
Cumulative rainfall between 96% and 104% of the LPA is considered ‘normal’. According to Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general, IMD, there is a 40% probability of ‘normal’ rainfall in the coming season with 26% chances of a ‘below normal’ rainfall and 14% deficient rains. There is a 15% probability of ‘above normal’ rains and a 5% probability of ‘excess’ rainfall, he added.
On Tuesday, private weather forecaster Skymet had predicted normal monsoon rainfall this year at 98% of the 50-year average, with an error margin of +/-5%.
The forecaster saw a 65% chance that the country would get normal rainfall in the June-September period with no chances of drought.
IMD also stated that La Nina conditions, which help moisture available over the Indian subcontinent, are likely to continue during monsoon months.
As part of regional variations in the forecast, the IMD predicted normal rainfall over many parts of plains of northwest India, central India and Eastern coast. It has predicted below normal rainfall northeast and parts of northwest Indian and southern parts of the peninsula.
India’s food grains output has risen from 297.5 million tonne (MT) in the 2019-20 (July-June) crop year to 316 MT in 2021-22 as per the second advance estimates released by the ministry of agriculture.
Higher food grains output ensures adequate availability in the market and curbs the possibility of spike in prices of commodities. Monsoon rains help boost production of kharif crops such as paddy, coarse cereals, pulses and oilseeds.
An increase in production doesn’t necessarily result in higher income for farmers, given India’s complex agriculture marketing system. Also, the implementation of the government’s support price mechanism is uneven across regions and crops.
“Along with giving a boost to kharif crop production, the normal monsoon would brighten India’s prospects in agricultural commodities exports,” PK Joshi, former director (South Asia), International Food Policy Research Institute, told FE.
Meanwhile, the Central Water Commission data, the water storage level in key 140 reservoirs on Wednesday was 110% of the storage level of the corresponding period of last year and 131% of storage on average in the last ten years.
The “agriculture and allied sectors”, which employ more than half of India’s workforce, are expected to witness a growth of 3.9% in 2021-22 in terms of gross value added (GVA). These sectors grew at 3.6% in 2020-21 even as Covid-19 severely impacted other economic activities.
Agriculture GVA was 18.8% of India’s GDP in 2021-22; the sector’s share in GDP hovered around 18-20% in the last few years
According to IMD, in terms of monthly share in monsoon rains, June, July, August and September contribute 19.1%, 32.3%, 29.4% and 19.3%, respectively, to the total southwest monsoon.
The IMD will issue the updated forecasts for the monsoon rainfall by May end.