By Dr Ajey Lele
Is the US President trying to create a new world order? It’s hard to say with certainty. However, his actions with NATO and the EU, along with his views on current conflicts, indicate that he is keen to shift how the US cooperates with the world. He seems open to engaging with Russia and China directly, without getting caught up in debates like morality and ethics. His approach appears to be more focused on a simple cost-benefit analysis. While he is not ignoring geopolitics, what he values most seems to be profit—whether economic or strategic.
On January 23, 2025, Mr Trump had expressed his opinion about the efficacy of nuclear weapons while speaking at the World Economic Forum. He mentioned that he would like to see denuclearization happening and Russian President Putin is also of the same opinion. He also feels the Chinese President Xi would also agree to this idea. As per him at present China has a much smaller nuclear armament in comparison with the US and Russia, but they could catch-up in future. However, it is important to note that he is not speaking against nuclear weapons as a peacenik or a person believing in truth and nonviolence. As a businessman at heart, he believes that large amounts of money are being spent on nuclear weapons and it is a useless investment!
He is keen to restart nuclear arms control talks with Russia and China and this could eventually lead to these states cutting their massive defence budgets in half. It is well understood that he is not talking about abolishing the nuclear weapons altogether but reducing the unnecessary investments towards increasing the nuclear weapons arsenal. He opined that big states are investing hundreds of billions of dollars towards rebuilding the nuclear deterrence structures and said he is keen to get commitments from the US adversaries to cut their own spending. Also, he is against building brand-new nuclear weapons. Trump feels that the talks with Russia and China could start after the ongoing crisis in the Middle East and Ukraine are over.
One must compliment Mr Trump for showing the boldness to address this issue and thinking about nuclear arms reduction talks at this stage. However, during his first term also he was keen for nuclear negotiations but could not do much. He attempted engaging North Korea but it looked that his adversaries were not keen. With Iran he actually never looked for negotiations and withdrew in 2018 from the Iran nuclear deal, known as Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA. During 2019, he made the US exit from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, a treaty which was signed by the US President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in 1987. Against this backdrop would Putin take Trump seriously?
China has already indicated their nuclear arsenal is very small and they are not keen for any negotiations. It needs to be noted that today China cannot negotiate from the potions of strength since their nuclear structures have no equivalence with the US and Russia, obviously China would like to build-up first. As per some estimates today the US and Russia could be having more than 5000 nuclear weapons each while China could have around 500 to 600 weapons. Hence, China would not like to join any discussions at the stage and possibly would wait for the US and Russia to negotiate first.
Arms control negotiations are complicated matters. To decide on the ‘terms of reference’ for talks could itself be problematic. Issues like on-site inspections and effective verification would be difficult to negotiate. In fact instead of starting negotiations with Russia and China immediately Trump should look for the low hanging fruit like Iran. Today, Iran is not on a strong wicket, since owing to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, Lebanon’s Hezbollah has weakened, Hamas is finding it difficult to hold on. Assad has ran away from Syria. Hence, this is an opportune time for Trump to start nuclear talks with Iran. Trump can also think of reengaging North Korea. The ongoing political turmoil in South Korea and the admiration’s tough policy on North Korea, the best option for Trump to engage North Korea could be via China route. However, all this will depend on the negotiating skills of Trump admiration.
For negotiations with Russia, there is a structure already available called a New START, which is a nuclear arms reduction treaty between the US and Russia which entered into force on 5 February 2011. During February 2023, Russia suspended its participation in New START, but has not withdrawn from the treaty. The treaty limits the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads for each party to 1,550. Both these states have total nuclear warheads which are more than 5000 each however, the actually deployed warheads are around 1770 each. New START is to expire on 5 February 2026. Trump has a period which is less than one year to undertake negotiations under this structure. Hence, it is important for him not to wait for ending the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict and start the negotiations simultaneously.
Trump’s strategic goal in negotiating a nuclear weapons reduction deal is to reduce nuclear risks and enhance US security. However, regarding US security, he has also announced plans for a national missile defence system, a larger and more advanced version of something like Israel’s Iron Dome. So, is he supporting two conflicting ideas? Probably, but that is typical of Donald Trump!
The US President on January 28, 2025 has signed an executive order directing the Pentagon to develop a comprehensive missile defence system. He wants such a system owing to Russian and Chinese advancements in the field of hypersonic missiles. For development of this system, major financial and technological investment are required. There is a need to develop space-based interceptors for boost-phase interception and an accelerated deployment of the Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Space Sensor layer. This is compacted and would take much time. Some experts are of the opinion that such a system would serve limited purposes and would be able to provide a protective cover for the entire US, as envisioned by Mr Trump.
In summary, it seems that President Trump is pursuing two approaches: advocating for global nuclear disarmament, while simultaneously working on a missile defence system to protect the US from any nuclear attack. Interestingly, he is silent about the UK and France, the other nuclear states under the NPT framework. Is this because he is not interested in involving NATO in nuclear negotiations, or is he secretly aiming to maintain NATO’s strategic balance? Only time will tell if Trump succeeds in reshaping the world order through nuclear negotiations.
The author is Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA, New Delhi.
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