By Lt Col Manoj K Channan, Retd
The geopolitical and military dynamics between India and Bangladesh have evolved significantly over the years, and recent developments, such as the reported political asylum to Sheikh Hasina in Delhi, the interim Bangladeshi government’s outreach to Pakistan regarding the 1971 genocide, and their request for artillery rounds from Pakistan, introduce new complexities. These actions could have far-reaching consequences for India’s future relationship with Bangladesh, both geopolitically and in terms of defence strategy. Below is an analysis of these aspects:
Geopolitical Implications: Strategic Importance of Bangladesh to India
Historical Ties. India and Bangladesh share deep historical ties, mainly stemming from India’s crucial role in Bangladesh’s 1971 liberation from Pakistan. India has viewed Bangladesh as a strategic partner in maintaining stability in South Asia.
Border and Security Concerns. Bangladesh’s internal political stability has direct security implications for India, as its land border is over 4,000 kilometres. Border management is critical, and issues such as cross-border smuggling, migration, and insurgent activities impact India’s northeastern states.
Water Resources. The shared river systems, including the Ganges and Brahmaputra, make water-sharing agreements vital. Strained relations could impact these agreements, further exacerbating tensions over natural resources.
Shift in Bangladesh-Pakistan Relations
Reconciliation over the 1971 Genocide. If the interim government in Bangladesh seeks reconciliation with Pakistan over the 1971 genocide, it could mark a significant shift in regional alliances. Pakistan has historically denied responsibility for the atrocities committed during the war, and any move towards rapprochement could undermine the historical narrative of Bangladesh’s independence, where India played a key role.
Impact on Bilateral Relations with India. India’s relationship with Bangladesh has traditionally been anchored in shared history and security cooperation. Bangladesh’s tilt towards Pakistan, especially in the context of military cooperation, could strain diplomatic relations between Dhaka and New Delhi. India may interpret these actions as Bangladesh attempting to distance itself from its past alignment with India, which could reduce India’s leverage in the region.
Influence of External Powers
China’s Role. China has been increasing its influence in Bangladesh through investment in infrastructure projects, such as the Padma Bridge, and military cooperation. Any shift in Bangladesh’s stance towards India or Pakistan could be influenced by external powers, particularly China, which has a growing strategic interest in the Bay of Bengal region. China could leverage the changing dynamics to deepen further its influence in Bangladesh, which would concern India.
United States and QUAD. Bangladesh’s geopolitical alignment will also attract attention from the U.S., which is invested in containing China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. The U.S. would likely view a shift in Bangladesh’s ties with Pakistan and China as potentially destabilising for the region and for India, a key player in the QUAD initiative.
Geo-military Ramifications for India: Impact on India’s Defense Posture
Bangladesh’s Request for Artillery from Pakistan. The reported request for 40,000 artillery rounds from Pakistan marks an unusual turn in Bangladesh’s military procurement strategy. Bangladesh has traditionally procured defence equipment from India, Russia, and China. Even temporarily, a shift towards Pakistan for military supplies could signal a strategic realignment in Dhaka’s defence policies.
Potential for a Military Realignment. If Bangladesh starts expanding military cooperation with Pakistan, India will likely respond by reevaluating its defence posture along the Bangladesh border. This could lead to bolstering Indian military assets in its eastern command and increased surveillance and defence readiness along the 4,000-km border shared with Bangladesh.
India’s Military Cooperation with Bangladesh
Current Status. India and Bangladesh have engaged in joint military exercises, counterterrorism cooperation, and defence training. However, recent developments might cause Dhaka to reconsider the extent of its military cooperation with New Delhi if it perceives Pakistan as a viable alternative.
Potential Shift in Military Balances. While Bangladesh is unlikely to break off military ties with India entirely, any increased defence cooperation with Pakistan could affect the region’s military power balance. India would likely need to increase defence assistance to Bangladesh, particularly in counterinsurgency, anti-terrorism, and maritime security, to maintain influence and prevent Bangladesh from drifting further towards Pakistan or China.
Security Concerns in India’s Northeast
Instability in Bangladesh. Internal political instability in Bangladesh, especially if accompanied by closer ties with Pakistan, could have ramifications for India’s northeastern region. This area, already vulnerable to insurgencies, could witness increased cross-border infiltration or support for anti-India militant groups if Dhaka’s government aligns more closely with Islamabad. India would likely need to increase border security and potentially reengage with northeastern insurgent groups to mitigate any spillover effects.
Regional Terrorism Networks. India has cooperated extensively with Bangladesh in countering terrorist groups such as the Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB). A shift in Bangladesh’s foreign policy towards Pakistan might result in a reduction of intelligence sharing and cooperation, potentially allowing terrorist networks to regroup and threaten India’s security.
India’s Strategic Response: Diplomatic Engagement
Maintaining Diplomatic Ties. India will likely pursue a strategy of continued diplomatic engagement with Bangladesh, emphasising shared history, economic ties, and regional security cooperation. New Delhi may counterbalance the growing Bangladesh-Pakistan rapprochement by offering more attractive economic and infrastructure deals and defence assistance.
Leveraging Multilateral Forums. India will likely push for more robust cooperation through regional organisations like BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation), where Bangladesh plays a significant role. This will provide a platform for India to diplomatically counter any moves by Pakistan to sway Bangladesh towards its orbit.
Economic and Soft Power Influence
Economic Cooperation. India could leverage its trade and economic ties with Bangladesh to align Dhaka with its strategic goals. Bangladesh is India’s largest trading partner in South Asia, and India has invested heavily in its neighbour’s infrastructure, energy, and transport sectors. Strengthening these economic links could dissuade Bangladesh from moving closer to Pakistan.
Cultural Diplomacy. Shared cultural and historical ties between India and Bangladesh remain strong, especially with the Bengali-speaking population. India may seek to bolster its soft power influence through cultural diplomacy, educational exchanges, and support for Bangladesh’s economic development, maintaining people-to-people connections despite any political shifts.
Enhancing Defense and Intelligence Cooperation
Defense Modernization Offers: India might consider increasing its defence assistance to Bangladesh, offering more advanced military technology, training, and joint exercises to retain military cooperation. Such moves could help Bangladesh modernise its military without relying on Pakistan or China for support.
Intelligence Sharing. Despite political tensions, India would seek to continue intelligence cooperation with Bangladesh, particularly concerning terrorism and cross-border insurgency. This is critical for ensuring the security of India’s northeastern states and maintaining broader regional stability.
Internal Political Dynamics in Bangladesh and India’s Foreign Policy Challenges
The recent developments in Bangladesh highlight several critical challenges for India’s foreign policy approach towards its neighbour. The 1971 generation of liberation war fighters, who were once the backbone of Bangladesh’s national identity and its ties with India, has largely faded away, leaving behind a political vacuum filled by a new generation with different perspectives. The burning down of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s house, a symbol of Bangladesh’s liberation and national pride, reflects the growing unrest and authoritarian tendencies of the ruling Awami League under Sheikh Hasina. This has been compounded by India’s conspicuous silence regarding the shooting and killing of students during the Monsoon Revolution protests, a fact that has not gone unnoticed by opposition forces. Furthermore, India’s inability to maintain constructive dialogue with key political players such as the BNP (Bangladesh Nationalist Party), the Students’ Union, and the Jamaat-e-Islami signals a significant shortfall in its foreign policy strategy, which has focused disproportionately on the Awami League. To safeguard its broader regional and national interests, India must recalibrate its foreign policy to prioritise these over the personal rapport between its leaders and the Sheikh Hasina regime. A more inclusive engagement with all political stakeholders in Bangladesh, including those critical of India, would better serve India’s long-term strategic goals, ensuring stability and continued influence.
Conclusion
The evolving geopolitical and geo-military landscape between India and Bangladesh is entering a complex phase, driven by internal political shifts in Bangladesh, external influences from Pakistan and China, and India’s strategic response. While the historical ties forged during Bangladesh’s 1971 liberation and the cooperative relationship with the Awami League remain essential, the recent developments—including Bangladesh’s outreach to Pakistan, growing unrest within the country, and India’s lack of engagement with opposition forces—signal potential challenges ahead. For India, maintaining regional stability and protecting its national interests will require a recalibrated approach. This involves moving beyond reliance on personal ties with the current regime and embracing a more inclusive engagement strategy with all political stakeholders in Bangladesh. By balancing diplomatic, economic, and defence initiatives, India can continue to play a vital role in shaping Bangladesh’s future while safeguarding its strategic position in South Asia.
The author is an Indian Army Veteran.
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