It’s too close to call, the FedEx Cup is. And that’s a good thing: it would be pretty anticlimactic if the results of the season-long competition were a done deal before the final event in the playoffs—the Tour Championship—had teed off. The ante has been significantly upped—this year’s FedEx Cup winner will take home $25 million while all 30 players will make no less than half a million dollars for making it to the Tour Championship.
Just to recap, the Tour Championship is the last of three playoff events that conclude the FedEx Cup in which players accrue points based on their performances through the season. Unlike other events, those points determine a starting score for every player. Scottie Scheffler, on the back of an extraordinary season in which he’s won six times—including the Players Championship and The Masters Tournament—started right on top at ten-under par, followed by his closest rival, Xander Schauffele at eight-under. The first playoff—St Jude Classic—winner Hideki Matsuyama began at seven-under, while last week’s BMW Championship winner, Keegan Bradley was at six-under. Wunderkid Ludvig Aberg got five shots while Rory McIlroy, Colin Morrikawa, Wyndham Clark, Patrick Cantlay and Sam Burns were bunched up together at four-under. The rest of the field started within 10 strokes of Scheffler—formidable odds, but certainly not insurmountable. That changed rather quickly as the tournament got underway: Scheffler shot a pair of scintillating rounds to lie at 21-under going into the weekend, extending his lead to four shots over Morikawa at 17-under. Schauffeule lies a further shot adrift, while the rest of the field has fallen off the map. No other player is within nine shots of Scheffler. Morikawa shot an astounding nine birdies enroute to a second round 63. The fact that Scheffler’s 64 in the second round barely found a mention in the media just highlights the level of play everyone has come to expect from the world number one.
By the time you read this, the last stretch—the final round—will be about to tee off. With so much money on the line, it’s hard to overstate the significance of these 18 holes. As far as Scheffler and Schauffele are concerned, the PGA Tour’s ‘Player of the Year’ trophy is on the line. As things stand now, with his Olympic Gold to go with the six victories, Scheffler will probably edge out Schauffele who’s won two Major championships. If Schauffele wins the FedEx Cup then that could tilt things in his favour. If Scheffler wins then that eight-win season is unlikely to be equalled. Neither of the players has won a FedEx Cup.
An achy back and his distaste for the playoff format had raised some concerns about Scheffler’s prospects: he has a history of struggling in the FedEx Cup Playoffs, and his recent performance at the BMW Championship raised some eyebrows: he entered the Tour Championship with the two-stroke lead the past two seasons and finished those respective tournaments runner up and in a share of sixth place. Schauffele, on the other hand, is clearly on song and likely to continue that run on a course where he won in his debut in 2017. In 2023, Schauffele gave Viktor Hovland a run for his money before eventually finishing second in the FedEx Cup. Most experts agree that while Scheffler has undoubtedly been the best player of 2024, Schauffele is the one on a streak at the moment.
The fan favourite–Rory Mcllroy–is nearly out of the running at eight-under. The Irishman loves this golf course and pulled off the greatest comeback in FedEx Cup Playoffs history two years ago, but he’s just not recovered from some of his tough losses this year, none more so than the US Open. What would really make it an ending befitting a historic finale would be if an underdog came and stole the Cup. And it is possible: Keegan Bradley entered the playoffs in 50th (last) place and won the BMW Championship last week. Bradley is out of the running this week, but Morikawa whose game has been on and off all season seems to have got it together at the right time. The American put on a show on the first day by sinking six birdies in a row on the back nine and then followed it up with that remarkable 63 on day two. It’s the second time that Morikawa finds himself playing well after a lull, and chasing Scheffler on a big stage. Earlier, in April 2024, Morikawa entered the Masters Tournament in a bit of a slump but discovered some feel on the range and played out of his socks to finish tied third behind Scheffler and Aberg.
But this time around it will take some help from Scheffler for Morikawa or Schaffeule to catch up. There’s no precedent for that though, Scheffler has always won with a lead of four or more strokes going into the weekend.
Which is not to say it can’t happen. Nine shots adrift at 12-under, Sahith Theegala, Adam Scott and Wyndham Clark lead the pack trailing the trio. Scott is in the middle of a purple patch showing an impressive resurgence in form. Clark is one of the few players to have won an event in which Scheffler contended (The Players Championship) and finished second to him at another (Arnold Palmer Invitational). There are plenty of scenarios being discussed at online forums; mostly fans trying to drum up support for their favourite player. But there’s only one player they’ll put their money on.
A golfer, Meraj Shah also writes about the game.