By Air Cmde TK Chatterjee(retd)              

Winter is a good time to return to India from wherever one stays for the rest of the year. The pleasant weather and the year-end festivities are irresistible. It is with this intention to surrender to the season’s magical charm that this year’s winter trip was planned to our hometown, Kolkata. The city had just gone through a few tumultuous months following the brutal rape and murder of a lady doctor on duty at a city hospital. Things had just about subsided; the government had survived the social uprising against it, the doctors had returned to their profession, the police force had gone back to their precincts to redeem their lost reputation, and the cool winter breeze calmed the ruffled feathers of the city when a new phenomenon took over the local media. This time, it was the events of a bordering country, Bangladesh, where civil unrest against the government had degenerated into allegedly organised persecution of minorities, viz., Hindus. Bengali Hindus.

Though post-1947 West Bengal is a part of India, and post-1971 Bangladesh is a sovereign country, the whole region was one Bengal before India’s partition. So, even though the two entities are presently connected only through Delhi and Dacca, perhaps an unspoken, invisible, platonic link remains between the people through language, culture, ethnicity, and history. Hindus, Muslims, or whatever, they are all Bengalis. They all identify with Hilsa, Misti Doi, and Rabindra Sangeet. So, understandably, there were extremely angry and agitated news and feature anchors on all Bengali TV channels vociferously condemning the interim government of Bangladesh of incompetence, complicity, and perjury. I was horrified to see one rather belligerent anchor lay out a quixotic plan to carve out independent territories for minorities within Bangladesh!

An intriguing part of this fiasco in Bangladesh is how an anti-government student protest turned into an anti-India agitation, with an Islamic flavour.

Flipping through the Bengali TV channels I came across the following claims that were being made in Bangladesh:

Hindus must go to Hindustan

Bangladesh will no longer tolerate Indian domination

Indian goods are to be boycotted

Kolkata can be captured in 4 days by Bangladesh armed forces

Bengal, Bihar, Orissa and the entire Northeast will become part of Bangladesh

Bangladesh will borrow nuclear devices from a ‘friendly’ country and use them against India

Young generation were being called to rise in jihad against India

Some of these claims are being supported with video clips, which probably have not been location or identity verified by the channels. For a country whose land border is totally encircled by India, these military objectives of changing the map of Bangladesh seem like a fantasy dream of a drug addict on steroids. But all the same, repeatedly seeing the vandalised Iskcon temples, desecration of other Hindu places of worship, disturbances at Durga Puja festivities etc in Dacca and elsewhere in Bangladesh, do create an atmosphere of animosity amongst the people. A first reaction of such visuals is that some Kolkata hospitals are refusing to accept patients from Bangladesh who usually throng to the city medical facilities for treatment of serious ailments. Hotels and guest houses around popular medical facilities have stopped accommodating Bangladeshis.

While these claims may seem outlandish, they warrant nuanced scrutiny, particularly given the complex historical and economic ties between India and Bangladesh. The bilateral trade, currently valued at approximately $13 billion with a trade surplus favouring India, underscores the intricate interdependence between the two nations. This economic relationship, rooted in historical context, is often mischaracterized as Indian hegemony by political opportunists and religious extremists who leverage such narratives to advance divisive agendas.

The rapid Islamisation of Bangladesh and the rise of radicals has not had any positive effect on the country. As per World Bank data, Bangladesh GDP had a steady rise till 2022. It has dropped from 7% in FY 2023 to 5.2% in FY 2024 and has been forecast at 4% in FY 2025. The inflation rate in FY 24 stands at 9.7%. Its public debt stands at 39% of GDP which is sustainable but needs extraordinary economic skills of its leadership. Its credit rating has been forecast with negative outlook as per Standard & Poor, Moody and Fitch. The FDI, which peaked at more than USD 2 billion in 2018, has dropped to less than 1 billion due to political and economic instability. This will create an enormous downstream crisis in infrastructure and energy sectors in the country.

A country that was secular and had more per capita GDP than India since 2019, is on a downhill path and a turnaround is unlikely soon, since the country is in a state of turmoil. Dissatisfaction of Bangladeshis with successive Awami League governments for their authoritarian style and electoral malpractices may be justified but turning the discontent around and directing it against India, is not. The ousted Prime Minister being sheltered in India is not helping the cause either. The politically motivated hue and cry by the opposition parties in India over persecution of minorities in India is adding to the repertoire of the religious bigots in Bangladesh. In addition, abrogation of Article 370, implementation of Citizen Amendment Act etc have also helped the religious hardliners of Bangladesh to whip up public frenzy.  The current youth of the country is far removed from the events of 1971 and therefore are easy to radicalise by the self-serving and vile clergy, in the name of Islam.

India may have become complacent towards Dacca while Awami League was in power for 15 years since 2009, taking their allegiance to India for granted. But the Awami League government apparently was not a popular choice and hence had to resort to high handed administrative methods. The rise in anti-Mujibur Rahman sentiments in Bangladesh is rooted in historical grievances regarding his leadership, contemporary political dynamics that challenge the ruling party’s narrative, socio-economic discontent among citizens, and cultural shifts towards alternative historical interpretations. Moreover, their leaning towards India over the years corroded India’s image and anti-India sentiments built up. All the signals that should have indicated this trend had probably gone unnoticed or were ignored. But things have now changed, and Indian foreign policy mandarins will certainly have to act before things turn ugly.

To de-escalate tensions, India must strategically address Bangladesh’s multifaceted concerns through comprehensive diplomatic and economic engagement. The trade imbalance, currently skewed heavily in India’s favour, can be mitigated through targeted bilateral agreements that provide mutually beneficial market access.

Infrastructure development presents a critical opportunity for rebuilding goodwill. Similar to India’s strategic investments in Afghanistan, infrastructure projects can create tangible economic opportunities and foster people-to-people connections.

The media’s role is pivotal in shaping public perception. Collaborative media initiatives can help counteract inflammatory narratives and promote understanding between Bengalis on both sides of the border.

Another pricking issue is the water dispute between the two countries. There are 54 transborder rivers between India and Bangladesh, all part of the Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin. Bangladesh being the lower riparian state, makes it vulnerable to India’s upstream water management decisions. The West Bengal Chief Minister’s stance on Teesta River water sharing must be reassessed to prevent periodic diplomatic disruptions.

Radical Islamisation, the way Bangladesh seems to be going, has not brought any positive outcomes in those countries that have taken this path before. Widespread abuse of human rights, under the garb of Sharia Law leads to marginalisation of the country creating trade and economic barriers which affects the economy; and more the economy suffers more the discontent among the people resulting in more radicalisation. It is a very vicious and dangerous cycle. Bangladesh has certainly entered this infamous roundabout.

I tried to search for successful case studies of countries that have mitigated the economic decline due to radical Islamisation. I could find none. However, my research revealed that the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) advocates several approaches to address radicalisation. It emphasizes that addressing root economic and social causes is more effective than purely punitive approaches in mitigating the economic impact of radical Islamisation. The key is creating inclusive economic opportunities that reduce the appeal of radical ideologies by providing meaningful alternatives for marginalised populations. Can the government of Bangladesh do it? I shall not bet on it.

South Asia, consisting of Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Maldives, consists of diverse peoples who speak hundreds of different languages and follow numerous different religious traditions, but they have shared histories, including the experience of British colonialism, and shared cultural connections, love of cricket and Bollywood, ethnic ties, and musical and culinary practices. With one-fourth of the world population, they could have formed a regional block and played a major role in global geopolitics. But that was not to be. Mutual distrust and enmity have been hurdles to any regional security, economic or policy cohesion. The sordid saga continues. The latest India-Bangladesh confrontation is just another nail in the coffin.

The author is an IAF Veteran. Email: teekaycee@gmail.com / X : @teekaycee

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