By V K Sharma
Though the Nifty ended higher by 0.41% in the muhurat session and closed by 0.51% for the week at 24304, it still continues to be in the woods.
Currently, the Nifty is below its 10, 20, 50 and 100 dema. All the hallmarks of a weak market.
The last article a fortnight back, had marked a circle on the daily Nifty Charts at 25234, the high seen on October 9, as a watershed mark. The benchmark did not have the gumption to come even near bye, forget about closing above that mark. It even made heavy weather of the 24,500 mark and couldn’t cross it.
Ever since the Nifty closed below its 10-day exponential moving average (dema) on September 13, it has not been able to close above that mark even for a single day. So, keeping track of this event can help you get an early signal of the rebound. The Nifty has lost 1,605 points or 6.2% in October. The month has the dubious distinction of giving the worst returns among all the months of the year. On the contrary, the month of November has usually given positive returns. This augurs well for the future.
The markets have a lot to chew this week which will have a global impact. The Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress goes into a 5-day huddle on November 4 in China, the US will elect its 47th President on November 5 and the FOMC, the policy-making arm of the US Fed will announce the outcome of its two-day rate-setting meeting on November 7.The outcome of the Fed meeting is the easiest to call. One can expect a 0.25% rate cut at the meeting, which is already priced in. It would be a surprise if the FOMC held rates steady. The NPCSC has a job on its hands. The Q3 GDP in China has come in at 4.6%, after growing at the desired 5% from January to June. In September, the Chinese authorities lowered interest rates, slashed mortgage rates for existing homeowners and pruned the reserve requirement ratio for banks. While deliberating on the next steps to ensure a higher economic growth rate, the Chinese will have an eye on the outcome of the US elections. If Trump gets into the White House for the second time, the NPCSC will have to cough up much more.As this U.S. Presidential election is expected to be closely fought, there are fair chances that there could be litigation, which could take time to settle, and markets don’t like uncertainties.
In the year 2000, George W Bush and Al Gore fought a legal battle, which took more than a month to settle. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had plunged 5.3% in that period.Investors need not panic. While Trump in the White House will be a welcome development, India has the depth of diplomacy to handle the other possibilities as well.
The writer was head of market PCG & Capital Market Strategy, HDFC Securities.
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