The Cotton Association of India (CAI) in its July estimate for the 2020-21 season has lowered its estimates by 1.50 lakh bales (1 bale = 170 kg) to 354.50 lakh bales from its previous estimate of 356 lakh bales.
The industry body has maintained its crop estimate for the northern zone at the same level as in its previous month’s estimate of 65.50 lakh bales. The estimate for the central zone has been reduced by 0.50 lakh bales to 193.50 lakh bales.
There is reduction of 2.50 lakh bales for Gujarat, while the crop estimates of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh have been increased by 1.50 lakh bales and 0.50 lakh bales, respectively, compared to the previous month. The crop estimate for the southern zone has been reduced by 1.00 lakh bales to 90.50 lakh bales, compared to the previous estimate of 91.50 lakh bales.
The total supply estimated by the CAI during the period from October 2020 to July 2021 is 482.61 lakh bales. This consists of arrivals of 348.61 lakh bales, imports of 9 lakh bales and the opening stock at the beginning of the season on October 11, 2020 at 125 lakh bales.
The CAI has estimated cotton consumption during the months of October 2020 to July 2021 at 275 lakh bales, while the export shipment up to July 31, 2021, is estimated at 70.00 lakh bales. The stock at the end of July 2021 is estimated at 137.61 lakh bales, including 80.00 lakh bales with textile mills and remaining 57.61 lakh bales with the CCI.
Domestic consumption for the entire crop year up to September 30, 2021 is now estimated higher by 5 lakh bales to 330 lakh bales considering the brisk demand for cotton yarn despite disruptions caused by lockdown.
The CAI has also increased the exports estimate for the season to 77 lakh bales from its previous estimate of 72 lakh, based on the feedback received from exporter members. This export estimate is higher by 27 lakh bales from 50 lakh bales in the previous year. The carryover stock at the end of the season i.e. on September 30. 2021 is now estimated at 82.50 lakh.