Ram Vilas Paswan-led Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) has come out all smiles following the announcement of the seat-sharing deal between the NDA partners in Bihar on Sunday. Paswan’s LJP had put up an aggressive stand in the last few days — courtesy LJP parliamentary party chief Chirag Paswan — seeking a better bargain from the BJP and Nitish Kumar’s Janata (United).

The hard bargaining appeared to have paid off as the LJP will field candidates on six seats, one less than what it had contested in 2014, while the BJP and JD(U) will contest from 17 seats each. However, the pressure tactic worked for the Paswans with the BJP also declaring that senior Paswan will get a Rajya Sabha berth. The decision is a win for the LJP because it had earlier been offered 5 seats by the BJP for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

Also Read: BJP, JD(U) to fight on 17 seats each, LJP gets 6 seats

Paswan is a prominent Dalit leader in Bihar. Mahadalits and Dalits account for 16% of state’s total population of 10 crore. Besides, he has also a good outreach among the 17% Muslims population. Both Dalits and Muslims play a very crucial role in determining the outcome of the elections in Bihar and therefore, the BJP doesn’t wanted to invite any risk by deserting Paswan. The BJP, at large, is seen as a urban region party and enjoys a strong vote-bank of forward castes who comprise only 17% of the total population.

In the 2014 polls, the JD(U) had contested elections alone but won just two seats. But when Nitish returned to the NDA fold in 2017, the BJP faced a tough challenge to keep all partners intact. The RLSP, however, quit the NDA citing Modi government’s failure to deliver achhe din. It was the RLSP’s exit that gave a sense of urgency to the NDA’s seat-sharing deal in the state.

Hard Bargaining

Chirag’s ultimatum to the BJP and its timing seemed to have made all the difference for his party. After reports of an agreement being worked out between the alliance partners, the final announcement was delayed after Chirag toughened his stand, forcing the parties to sit again to rework on the seat-sharing formula. Remarks by Chirag critical of the BJP and Modi government and letter to Finance Minister Arun Jaitley seeking an explanation on the benefits of demonetisation appeared to have BJP on the back-foot, with the Modi-Nitish combine eventually yielding to the pressure.

BJP chief Amit Shah said that Paswan will be sent to the Rajya Sabha at the earliest opportunity. At present, the LJP has six Lok Sabha MPs and no representation in the Rajya Sabha. As per the agreement, LJP president Ram Vilas who is also a part of Modi’s cabinet will be sent to the Upper House when the next elections are held. The decision only means Paswan (72) will not contest any elections. The next Rajya Sabha election will be held in May-June next year to elect 2 MPs from Assam and 8 from Tamil Nadu. It is expected that the BJP will send Paswan to the Upper House from Assam’s quota where it is in power.

The Timing

The LJP, which had until recently left no stone unturned to defend the Modi government at the Centre, changed tact after the BJP’s drubbing in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. RLSP chief Upendra Kushwaha’s decision to quit the NDA also gave the party the opportunity to flex its muscle for greater space in the alliance. Toeing a different line, Chirag issued an ultimatum to the BJP asking it to finalise the seat-sharing deal at the earliest. In his remark last week, Chirag said that there has been no concrete decision from the BJP’s end on seat-sharing even after meeting the BJP leaders several times. He said that after TDP and RLSP’s exit, the BJP-led NDA is passing through a critical phase. At this point, he said that the BJP should address the concerns of the remaining allies in a timely and proper fashion.

“Unless these decisions are made in time, it could have consequences,” Chirag Paswan had said in a tweet.

In his remark on Sunday, Ram Vilas Paswan, however, claimed that there was never a problem in the alliance and the government under leadership Narendra Modi and Amit Shah will retain power in 2019.

Notably, just a few days ago when Ram Vilas was asked about the flutter created by his son, he had replied: “There is no animosity, whatever is our decision, will be taken by Chirag,” hinting that he has already decided to hand over the reins of LJP to his son who is a Lok Sabha MP from Jamui.

On Sunday, when Amit Shah, Nitish Kumar and Ram Vilas Paswan met to discuss the issue, Chirag was present there. After a brief meeting, when the trio spoke to media, Chirag joined them and the gesture sent a message that he had successfully brought down the BJP to its knees to clinch the deal.

Post BJP’s loss in the assembly polls, it was Chirag who had written to Finance Minister Arun Jaitley asking him to list the benefits of the demonetisation so that he can explain them to people. This came immediately after it was alleged that Paswans were upset with the BJP over the seat-sharing agreement and the way its leaders have been dealing with the allies.

Speaking after Nitish Kumar, Paswan thanked Arun Jaitley for brokering peace between LJP and BJP. On Saturday, Paswans had met Jaitley separately and it was believed that they had discussed the seat-sharing pact.

Nitish Kumar also took the opportunity to laud Ram Vilas Paswan’s political career. He thanked the BJP for the decision to send Ram Vilas to the Rajya Sabha. He said that it is a recognition of his long service to the country. Ram Vilas is presently a Lok Sabha MP from Hajipur constituency. In the 1977 elections, Paswan had won election from Hajipur seat on a Janata Party ticket and held the world record for winning election by highest margin of 4.24 lakh votes.

Paswan also holds the distinction of working with several governments and switching sides depending upon the prevailing situation. He has worked with the all the governments including the Third Front headed by HD Deve Gowda, IK Gujral between 1996 and 1998, previous NDA government headed by Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Congress-led UPA-I government headed by Manmohan Singh and that the BJP would like to avoid giving him any such opportunity again.