After an early onset over Kerala coast, the progress of the south-west monsoon has been stalled for the last one week due to dry air intrusion, but is likely to revive by mid-June, weather experts have said.
Experts said subsequently the monsoon would progress into eastern and central parts of India. “Its quite usual in a monsoon season when the progress of rains gets stalled and it would revive soon,” an official with India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
The monsoon is likely to advance over some more parts of Central and east India during June 12 – 18, 2025, the met department has said.
The monsoon has not progressed at all since May 29 due to the intrusion of dry air from arid regions to the west and northwest of India. The dry air has engulfed most of the country, which will continue to block the monsoon progression until around June 12.
“The monsoon’s progression will restart closer to mid-June, and it is expected to rapidly advance into eastern and central parts of India in the third week of June,” Akshay Deoras, research scientist, National Centre for Atmosphere Science, University of Reading, United Kingdom, told FE.
“The overall rainfall situation in India during the second half of June is expected to be much better than that during the first half,” Deoras said. Rainfall during June 1 – 6, according to the met department, was 19 millimeter which is 3.4% below the benchmark – long period average.
The northern limit of monsoon has been stuck over Mumbai since May 26 and over Sikkim and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal since May 29, 2025.
IMD forecast “enhanced rainfall activity with isolated heavy falls very likely over northeastern states from June 9 and over south peninsular India from June 11.
However, the weather department has stated heat wave conditions are likely to prevail over west Rajasthan during June 8th-10, Punjab, Haryana, south Uttar Pradesh, north Madhya Pradesh on June 9 – 10.
The met department last month had reiterated its earlier forecast of ‘above normal’ monsoon rainfall during June-September this year, but said June might see “excess” rainfall.
There is also 90% chances of the rains being in the “normal-to-excess” range through the four-month (June-September) season, the met department has stated.
The monsoon set over Kerala coast on May 24, eight days ahead of the normal date of June 1. This was the earliest onset of monsoon in 16 years.
Typically, the southwest monsoon after onset over Kerala coast in early June covers the entire country by July. The monsoon rains start gradually receding from the north region from the middle of September.
Around 75% of India’s annual rainfall occurs during the monsoon season, which replenishes water reservoirs, rivers, lakes, and groundwater, which are vital for irrigation and drinking water supplies.