The withdrawal of the southwest monsoon started from some parts of west Rajasthan on Sunday, three days ahead of the schedule (September 17), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
Surplus rainfall was witnessed in the north-west, central and southern regions.
“Conditions are favourable for withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from some more parts of Rajasthan and some parts of Punjab and Gujarat during next two-three days,” the IMD said.
The met department has forecast “heavy to very heavy rainfall over northeastern states and Maharashtra over next three days”. Usually, the monsoon, which causes about 75% of the annual rainfall, withdraws from the entire country by the second week of October.
This year, monsoon had set in over the Kerala coast on May 24, eight days ahead of its normal onset date of June 1. Subsequently, it covered the entire country nine days before the usual date of July 8. This was the earliest since 2020 for the monsoon to cover the entire country.
Rainfall patterns and regional variations
According to the IMD, rainfall between June 1 and September 14 stood at 846 mm, which is 107.1% above the benchmark – long period average (LPA).
In terms of regional variations, northwest, central India and south peninsula have received surplus rainfall, while east and north-eastern regions have experienced deficit rainfall of 19.9% against the benchmark.
Rainfall in June, July and August was 109%, 105% and 105% of the LPA, respectively. The IMD forecast ‘above normal’ rainfall at 106% of the LPA during the June-September period.
The met department classifies ‘normal’ rainfall at between 96% and 104% of the LPA. Rainfall between 90% and 95% is considered ‘below normal’ while precipitation below 90% of the LPA is termed ‘deficient’. Rainfall in the range of 105-110% is considered ‘above normal’.
Impact on agriculture and kharif crops
The adequate rainfall has boosted hopes of a robust agriculture sector output for a second year in a row.
Aided by surplus rainfall, the sowing of kharif crops – paddy, pulses, oilseed, sugarcane and cotton – has been completed on 110.54 million hectare (mha), higher than normal sown area of 109.6 mha.
However, persistent heavy rainfall through August in Punjab, Haryana, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana impacted several kharif crops such as paddy, cotton, bajra, cotton, maize and gram, a report by Crisil Intelligence said. “Punjab and Rajasthan are staring at major crop losses after heavy rains, while the impact of surplus rainfall is localised in other states”, according to the Crisil report.
Monsoon rains also provide soil moisture for the winter crops.