In recent months, South Asia has been gripped by increasing uncertainty, with rising tensions in Bangladesh signalling a potential escalation in the region. As the interim government under Mohammad Yunus grows closer to Pakistan, and the Arakan Army in Myanmar expands its reach near Bangladesh’s borders, the prospect of conflict looms large. Amidst these shifting dynamics, questions arise: Is Bangladesh preparing for war? And if so, who are they preparing to fight?
Bangladesh’s Military Buildup: A Sign of Things to Come?
Bangladesh has been visibly ramping up its military preparedness in recent months, prompting speculation about its intentions. During a recent inspection of military exercises in Chittagong, interim government leader Mohammad Yunus urged the Bangladesh Army to prepare for war. He emphasized the importance of constant readiness to defend the nation’s sovereignty, a sentiment that aligns with the military’s growing focus on modernizing its forces.
These military exercises have included tanks, helicopters, and artillery, which are not only used for routine training but also serve as a signal to both internal and external actors. Yunus’ words, which suggest the need for constant preparation, have raised eyebrows given the broader geopolitical context. Is Bangladesh preparing for an impending conflict, and if so, who is the potential adversary?
Yunus and the U-Turn on Relations with India
While Yunus calls for military readiness, his government’s diplomatic actions tell a different story. One significant move that has raised concern in New Delhi is Bangladesh’s decision to purchase light tanks from Turkey, seemingly for deployment along the Indian border. These tanks, the ‘Otokar Tulpar,’ have been linked to conflict zones and even terror groups like ISIS, further deepening suspicions about Bangladesh’s intentions.
At the same time, the Yunus government has made a diplomatic U-turn by cancelling a planned judicial training program for 50 Bangladeshi judges in India. Originally scheduled to take place in Bhopal, this training program was intended to foster judicial ties between the two countries. The abrupt cancellation, framed as a routine administrative decision, nevertheless signals a cooling of relations, coming at a time of rising anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh. The shift towards Pakistan and away from India may be politically expedient for the interim government, but it raises alarm bells in New Delhi about the future of bilateral relations.
General Waqar Uz Zaman: A Voice of Caution Amid Rising Tensions
In contrast to the government’s actions, Bangladesh’s Army Chief, General Waqar Uz Zaman, has emerged as a rare voice of moderation. Despite the current political upheaval and the interim government’s growing proximity to Pakistan, Zaman has consistently emphasized the importance of maintaining good relations with India. In a series of statements, he made it clear that Bangladesh would never act in a way that undermines India’s strategic interests. Zaman’s remarks reflect a pragmatic approach, recognizing the deep interdependence between the two nations, particularly in trade, healthcare, and regional stability.
However, Zaman’s position has not been without controversy. His role in the political drama surrounding the ouster of Sheikh Hasina, his ties to the previous administration, and suspicions about his loyalty to the interim government add layers of complexity to his statements. With his government’s aggressive posture towards India, Yunus might not fully endorse Zaman’s cautious stance. The growing divergence between the military leadership and the interim government could be a harbinger of greater instability ahead.
Myanmar’s Arakan Army: A Growing Threat on the Border
As if Bangladesh’s internal political crisis and its tense relationship with India were not enough, the situation is further complicated by the growing influence of the Arakan Army, a Myanmar-based rebel group that has gained significant territory near Bangladesh’s border. Recently, the Arakan Army claimed to have captured Maungdaw, a town directly adjacent to Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar. This strategic location, combined with the rebel group’s success in taking key military positions in Myanmar’s Rakhine state, places Bangladesh’s border security on high alert.
The Arakan Army, which seeks to establish an independent Rakhine state, has increasingly collaborated with other insurgent groups in the region. If this alliance solidifies, the rebels could soon push deeper into Myanmar’s Rakhine state, creating a more volatile environment for Bangladesh. The proximity of the Arakan Army to Bangladesh’s border raises concerns about the possibility of cross-border insurgent activity, which could further destabilize the region.
Bangladesh’s security forces, already preoccupied with internal unrest, could face a new and potent threat from the insurgents operating along its borders. The stakes are higher than ever, as the military prepares for potential escalation on multiple fronts.
Bangladesh’s Diplomatic Dilemma: A Nation Between Allies
With the growing influence of Pakistan and the cancellation of diplomatic engagements with India, Bangladesh finds itself at a crossroads. Relations with India have deteriorated over the past year, particularly after the coup that ousted Sheikh Hasina. India has raised concerns over the treatment of religious minorities in Bangladesh, particularly Hindus, a source of tension that has spilled over into the diplomatic arena. Bangladesh’s call for India to extradite Hasina only adds fuel to the fire, further complicating the already delicate situation.
Yet, despite the growing friction, there are efforts to maintain some level of cooperation. For instance, both countries have recently engaged in the exchange of fishermen who had crossed maritime boundaries. This small but significant gesture reflects the underlying desire to keep diplomatic channels open, even amidst rising tensions. However, with the military’s focus on modernization and the government’s pivot towards Pakistan, it remains unclear whether these diplomatic exchanges will be enough to prevent further deterioration.
Is War Inevitable?
While the military rhetoric, increasing defence purchases, and shifting alliances all point to a region bracing for potential conflict, it is too early to say whether war is truly on the horizon for Bangladesh. The country’s leadership, divided between the military and the interim government, faces an uphill battle to balance its internal political struggles, external threats, and fragile relationships with its neighbours.
As Myanmar’s insurgency continues to destabilize the region, and as Bangladesh’s military posture grows more aggressive, the question remains: is war inevitable? Only time will tell whether Bangladesh can navigate this volatile period without triggering a wider conflict, or if the brewing tensions will ultimately erupt into something far more dangerous for South Asia. For now, the region watches closely, aware that the stakes are high and the risks even higher.