The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday predicted ‘above-normal’ maximum temperatures over most parts of the country during the summer months (April-June), with the exception of parts of east and northeast India.
“Above-normal temperatures are likely over most parts of country, especially with high probability over central India and western peninsular India,” Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director-General, IMD, said at a briefing.
Higher than normal temperature in the next couple of months is likely to result in water shortage, rise in coal consumption as power demand would rise and may damage the summer crops like pulses and cereals. It may expose a large number of people to heat waves because of the ongoing general elections.
The met department in its forecast states heat waves are expected in 10– 20 days in various parts of the country against the normal range of 4-8 days during summer months. It stated that most heat waves prone areas would include Gujarat, Madhya Maharashtra, north Karnataka followed by Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, north Chhattisgarh, Odisha and Andhra Pradesh.
However, the met department has projected ‘normal to below normal’ maximum temperatures are likely over some parts of western Himalayan region, northern eastern states and north Odisha.
In the current month’s forecast, the met department also predicted ‘above normal’ heatwave days are likely over many parts of south peninsula and adjoining northwest central India and some parts of east India and plains of northwest India.
Stating that there is no heat wave warning for wheat producing states except Madhya Pradesh where 90% of the harvesting has been completed, IMD has said that even if temperatures rise above 35 degrees, there will be no impact on wheat crops in Punjab , Haryana and Uttar Pradesh.
In addition, based on the IMD forecast, the national disaster management authority (NDMA) in its advisory to political parties has stated that anticipated increase in outdoor activities during the 2024 General Elections could heighten public vulnerability to heat waves. “There’s an elevated risk of heat wave-related health issues among the electorate and staff,” according to an official note.
Meanwhile, on the prospects of monsoon, Mohapatra said that prevailing El Nino conditions will turn into ‘neutral’ condition by June which may favor the monsoon. “La Nina conditions — associated with sufficient monsoon rainfall — are likely to set in by the second half of the monsoon season (July-September),” he said.
This year’ monsoon rains are crucial for Indian agriculture and more than 70% of the country’s annual precipitation is received during four months.
In 2023, the monsoon was not only the weakest in five years but was also marked by uneven distribution of rains across four months. Overall rainfall during June-September last year was just below the normal range at 94.4% of the benchmark – long period average (LPA).
Due to deficient monsoon rains last year, as per the second advance estimate of crop production by agriculture ministry, India’s foodgrain production is projected to decline to 309 million tonne (MT) in 2023-24 crop year (July-June), from a record of 329.6 MT in in the 2022-23 crop year.