Exit Polls 2023: The Assembly Elections in five states have come to an end with Telangana being the last one to vote today. From ballot boxes, the action has now shifted to TV screens with prominent news channels broadcasting the exit polls. Though there is no surety of the accuracy of the exit poll results, they do help in understanding the voting patterns and other intricacies of the election process. While there have been times that such surveys have got the numbers right, there have been other times when they were way off the mark from the actual poll verdicts. Here are five times when the exit polls got it wrong:
The faux-pas of 2004: Lok Sabha Elections 2004
The exit polls had forecasted a decisive victory for the BJP-led NDA, predicting over 240 seats. However, the actual results proved these predictions significantly inaccurate. The BJP secured around 187 seats, while Congress and its allies managed to win 216 seats in the 2004 General Elections.
Uttar Pradesh Assembly Election 2017
The majority of exit polls conducted for Uttar Pradesh’s Assembly Elections turned out to be inaccurate. Despite projections indicating a victory for the BJP with not more than 200 seats, the actual results revealed a landslide win for the party with 325 seats. ABP-Lokniti had forecasted BJP’s victory with 170 seats, while C-Voter polls showed the party in the lead with 161 seats.
Bihar Assembly Election 2020
Numerous exit polls foresaw a victory for the Rashtriya Janata Dal-led coalition in Bihar in 2020, but it was ultimately the BJP-JD(U) alliance that emerged triumphant. Both the Axis My India poll and Today’s Chanakya had anticipated a win for the RJD-led alliance, but as events unfolded, it became evident that their predictions were significantly off the mark.
Bihar Assembly Polls 2015
Back in 2015, all major exit polls failed to forecast the win of Nitish Kumar’s Grand Alliance. These surveys also got the seat share wrong. Only exception was Axis, which had correctly said that Grand Alliance will win massively in Bihar.
West Bengal Assembly Election 2021
India Today’s Axis My India exit poll results positioned the BJP in the lead with 134-160 seats and the TMC with 130-156 seats. In the Republic-CNX poll, the BJP was projected to win with 138-148 seats, while the TMC was expected to secure 128-138 seats. However, the actual election results revealed a different story, with the BJP obtaining only 77 seats and the TMC successfully returning to power.