Bihar Lok Sabha Election Opinion Poll 2024: Jolt to NDA? INDIA gains projected despite Nitish Kumar U-turn

Bihar Lok Sabha opinion poll survey 2024: Despite the volte-face by Nitish Kumar that saw him realign forces and form an NDA government in the state with the BJP’s support, the INDIA bloc of the RJD and Congress is likely to see significant gains in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections, the results of the India Today ‘Mood of the Nation’ survey released on Thursday shows.

As per the opinion poll, NDA’s tally may see a drop of 7 seats from its tally of 39 in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections when the BJP and JD(U) contested the elections together. Of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in the state, the INDIA bloc parties are expected to cumulatively garner 8 seats, seven up from its previous tally when the Congress won a solitary seat among Opposition parties.

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The survey was conducted between December 15, 2023, and January 28, 2024, the same day that Nitish took oath as the CM of the NDA government. It is likely that the survey failed to capture the voter sentiments following the political events that transpired in January-end.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won 17 seats, the JD(U) 16, and the undivided LJP, 6 seats. The Opposition alliance, which included the RJD, Congress and Left parties, bagged only 1 seat.

As per the vote share projections published in the survey, the NDA’s vote percentage may drop marginally from 53 per cent to 52 per cent. The tally of INDIA parties, on the other hand, could rise to 38 per cent, a seven percentage point increase from the 2019 elections.

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Bihar alliances have seen several upheavals since the last elections, including the one engineered by Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United). The BJP, which has stitched alliances with several smaller parties with an eye on votes from specific caste groups, now faces an uphill task of accommodating them.

The LJP, for instance, is divided into two factions – one led by Chirag Paswan and the other by his uncle Pashupati Kumar Paras. Other parties like the HAM headed by Jitan Ram Manjhi and Upendra Kushwaha’s RLSP are also part of the NDA ahead of elections.