Uttar Pradesh Exit Polls: Despite majority of exit polls predicting a likely return of BJP led NDA government at the centre, it’s not certain as exit polls have failed to project the actual winner or margin of victory in some of the previous elections. In past, exit polls have been successful in projecting the trends correctly, but their projections about the number of seats have also been off the mark. Though most exit polls predict a clear BJP victory, two of them have projected BJP-NDA falling short of a clear majority.

The exit polls conducted ABP News-Nielsen and NewsX-Neta have predicted BJP-NDA falling short of a clear majority of 272 seats. While ABP-News-Nielsen has projected NDA to win 267 seats, just 5 short of a clear majority of 272 seats, its projection about Uttar Pradesh is in stark contrast with the exit poll conducted by others.

ABP-News-Nielsen has projected that the BJP-NDA will win just 22 of total 80 seats in India’s most populous state Uttar Pradesh, a loss of 51 seats. It has also projected SP-BSP-RLD alliance to sweep the state by winning 56 seats, an improvement of 51 seats over its tally in 2014.

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Similarly, another survey conducted by NewsX-Neta has predicted that the BJP-NDA will win 33 of total 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh and it has given 43 seats to SP-BSP-RLD alliance.

India’s most populous state Uttar Pradesh holds the key for formation of government at the Centre. It alone sends 15% or 80 of total 543 members in the Lok Sabha. BJP had bagged 71 of 80 seats in the state in 2014 Lok Sabha election, one fourth of the total 282 seats won by the party nationwide.

If these two projections are correct then the BJP is likely to face challenges in securing a repeat term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. However, five other polls have projected a clear victory for the BJP in this tough battle.

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While India Today-My Axis has projected that the BJP will win 62-68 seats in the state, a loss of 3-9 seats, another survey conducted by Times Now-VMR has projected the BJP could win 58 seats in alliance with its partner Apna Dal, a loss of 15 seats in the state.

Similarly, News18-IPSOS surevey has projected the BJP will win 60-62 seats in Uttar Pradesh, while SP-BSP-RLD alliance is expected to win 17-19 seats. According to News24-Chanakya BJP is expected to win 65 seats in the state.

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However, two different exit polls conducted by Republic TV in partnership with CVoter and Jan Ki Bat have reflected two completely different pictures. While CVoter survey shows that BJP will win 38 seats and Akhilesh-Mayawati will win 40 seats and Congress 2, another survey conducted by Jan Ki Bat for the same media group shows that the BJP will win 46-57 seats, Mahagatbandhan will win 21-32 seats and Congress will win 2-4 seats.

Though most surveys have projected a BJP win in the state, however, a second term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi depends on the actual number of seats to be won by his party in the state, and not the projections made by exit polls.

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