IMD flags weakest rains in a decade; farm output, inflation outlook under cloud

The prediction implies that the coming monsoon could be the weakest since 2015, when precipitation was 86% of the benchmark. The last two years saw above-normal monsoon activity, while 2023 witnessed below-normal rains.

A below-par monsoon could adversely impact agricultural output besides hitting the rural economy and stoking inflation, even though in recent years, the share of rainfed crops in total farm output has decreased. Also, the timing and distribution of rains will have a major impact on crop yields.

While slightly over half of the net sown area is rainfed, coarse cereals, pulses, oilseeds and cotton are the major crops that rely significantly on southwest monsoon.

High probability of El Niño

The IMD said global models, including reports from early 2026, suggest a high probability of El Niño conditions developing during August-September, and cited the potential for a “super El Niño” or strong El Niño to develop, which could cause high temperatures. The forecast comes with a model error of ± 5% while there is only a 34% chance of monsoon to be in the range of normal to excess.

“The 2026 southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be below normal in the range of 95-90% of the benchmark,” M Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, said.

“The forecast of a sub-par monsoon, at 92% of LPA, owing to El Nino conditions, is the lowest first long-range forecast in at least 26 years. This, along with the impending impact of the ongoing crisis in West Asia, poses downside risks to India’s GDP growth in FY27,” Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA said.

The met office will release a second long-range forecast of the monsoon later next month.

What do researchers say?

“Given the high confidence in the current weather models regarding intensity of this year’s El Nino, it would not be surprising if the monsoon forecast is revised downward in the second stage update,” Akshay Deoras, senior research scientist, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK, told FE.

IMD’s forecast comes after private weather agency Skymet recently in its forecast a ‘below-normal’ southwest monsoon season in 2026, with rainfall likely at around 94% of the benchmark. In 2024 and 2025, rainfall was 108% of the benchmark.

Madan Sabnavis, chief economist, Bank of Baroda, said ‘while this may still be too premature to draw conclusions, at this stage it suffices to say that with the war not seeming like coming to an end, this news is not favourable for inflation,”.

Delay in monsoon arrivals or deficient rainfall in June and July is expected to impact kharif sowing, accounting for about 60% of the crop production. Monsoon rains also provide soil moisture for the winter crops.

Typically, the southwest monsoon, after onset over Kerala coast in early June covers the entire country by July. The monsoon rains start gradually receding from the north region during the mid-September and during the fourth months, the country receives over 75% of its annual rainfall.

The agency projected that the volume of monsoon rainfall during the four-month season will be 81.7 centimetres, compared to the normal benchmark of 87 centimetres. The LPA is the average rainfall received during 1971-2020. The IMD classifies ‘normal’ rainfall between 96% and 104% of LPA. Rainfall between 90%-95% is considered ‘below normal’ while precipitation below 90% of LPA is termed ‘deficient’. Rainfall in the range of 105-110% is considered ‘above normal’.