By Md. Muddassir Quamar
As the Gaza crisis that began in the wake of the October 7, 2023, attacks on Israel by Hamas completes 100 days, the world remains concerned about the possibility of it expanding to other parts of the Middle East. Signs of the potential widening of the conflict are visible with Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Ansar Allah (Houthis) in Yemen occasionally targeting northern Israel and Red Sea shipping, respectively. Israel has responded to the former by bombing Hezbollah targets along the Israel-Lebanon border and in Lebanon and Syria. On January 11-12, the US-UK carried out strikes inside Yemen to deter the latter. Notwithstanding the disquiet in the Middle East and across the world, the continued Israeli military operations in Gaza are palpable, the majority of the regional states are neither in favour of nor in a position to broaden the conflict. This does not ensure that the conflict will not widen or will not elongate.
The threats of the Israel-Gaza War widening if it continues for long remains and it emanates mainly from the armed non-state actors (NSAs) present across the Middle East. These NSAs have over the years emerged as a major force in some of the regional countries. Hamas, the Palestinian Resistance Movement or harkat al-muqawma al-Islamiya is also one such armed NSA with roots in the First Intifada (the 1987-93 Palestinian uprising against Israel). The group was initially promoted as a counterweight to the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) led by Yasser Arafat and gradually emerged as a major faction among the Palestinians. It used the tactics of armed resistance against Israel and proactive involvement in inciting and engaging in violence during the Second or Al-Aqsa Intifada (2000-2005).
As Hamas gained popularity in the Occupied Palestinian Territories, it emerged victorious in the January 2006 Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) elections. The PLC is the legislative branch of the Palestinian National Authority (PNA), also referred to as the Palestinian Authority (PA). With over 44 per cent vote share and claim over 74 of the 132 seats, Hamas claimed the right to govern the West Bank and Gaza and control the PA. It formed a unity government under Ismail Haniyeh but soon violence broke out between Fatah and Hamas over transition of power and Hamas militias forcefully took control of Gaza in June 2007. This led to the PA President Mahmoud Abbas dismissing Haniyeh and appointing Salam Fayyad as the prime minister. Hamas, however, did not accept the decision and termed it unconstitutional. This effectively led to the division of the Palestinian territories into two distinct entities – the West Bank controlled by Fatah-led PA and the Gaza Strip controlled by Hamas.
As an armed NSA, with ideological roots in the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas refuses to recognise Israel and continues to call for the establishment of a Palestinian state on the whole of Mandatory Palestine (1920-48). It calls for a complete annihilation of the state of Israel and considers targeting Jews as legitimate based on Islamic injunctions. Since taking over Gaza in 2007, Israel and Hamas have engaged in several armed conflicts leading to deaths and destruction on both sides. The tit-for-tat violence often caused by Hamas rocket fires into southern Israel in the name of resisting the occupation and the siege of Gaza and retaliatory Israeli strikes have continued ever since.
The October 7 event was the most daring of Hamas attacks inside Israel causing nearly 1,400 deaths (including foreign nationals) and nearly 250 Israelis (including women, infants and elderly people) taken hostage. The Israeli response of bombing and invading Gaza has, at the time of writing, caused nearly 24,000 deaths and 60,000 injuries. The situation has continued to worsen inside Gaza due to indiscriminate Israeli bombings while the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) units continue combing operations to flush out Hamas, and other militants, hiding in the network of tunnels inside the besieged strip and to rescue Israeli hostages. The international calls for a ceasefire have fallen on deaf ears while Qatari and Egyptian efforts at mediation have also failed to break the deadlock.
Meanwhile, the situation on the Israel-Gaza front remains fragile, and notwithstanding the threats of a wider conflict, has remained confined to the Gaza Strip. But the occasional incidents of violence have been reported in the West Bank, and between IDF and Hezbollah. The Houthis threatening the Red Sea shipping lines and US-UK retaliatory strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen are the latest conflagration with the potential to destabilise the region and global supply chains.
The Israel-Gaza conflict and the potential of it engulfing the whole region are symptomatic of a bigger malaise in the Middle East. The problem goes back to decades of increasingly dysfunctional regional states ascribed to the lack of democracy, poor governance, flawed economic policies and the inability of the states to provide security and welfare to citizens. The situation has become even more pronounced since the Arab Spring uprisings. The dysfunctional and weak states as evinced in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, Libya and Yemen have given way to NSAs that have over the years become stronger and, in some cases, taken over the state or have functioned as proto-state. The weakened authority of the state has meant that it no longer has the monopoly, or control, over the legitimate use of force, and this has led to the armed NSAs either filling in the vacuum or claiming the baton of armed resistance. Over the years, many academics, scholars and analysts have sought to draw attention to the challenge of proliferation of armed NSAs in the Middle East but this has not led to any serious debate among regional states and external powers on tackling the problem.
The response thus far has been piecemeal and focused on specific threats. Thus, the Islamic State (ISIS or ISIL) evoked a tangible response as it threatened regional security while directly or indirectly affecting external powers. On the other hand, the Turkish interventions in northern Syria and Iraq, the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen targeting Houthis and Israeli intervention in Lebanon whenever Hezbollah threatened Israeli security, and the ongoing intervention in Gaza to confront Hamas have been broadly viewed as state-specific security challenges.
The armed NSAs in the Middle East come from various hues of ideological, sectarian and ethnic backgrounds, but what connects them is the ability to manipulate the power vacuum in many regional states and to be able to acquire weapons and develop arms to replace the state or make it irrelevant. The situation becomes all the more complicated as these NSAs are not accountable to any international forums or conventions creating serious challenges in dealing with them. This has created a situation whereby the armed NSAs have become a critical threat to peace, stability and security in the Middle East. Until the regional states and external powers recognise the enormity of the problem and start working together to deal with this serious threat, the region will continue to suffer from violence threatening regional security, peace and stability.
The author is an Associate Professor in the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. Twitter: @MuddassirQuamar
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