Overcoming the Lunar Odds: Russia’s risky South Pole mission with a 70% chance of success

By Girish Linganna

Russia’s recent launch of a lunar lander after 50 years aims to reach the moon’s south pole first, emphasizing its quest for being a frontrunner in space exploration.

The mission faces multiple challenges, from a successful launch to landing on the rugged south pole of the moon on Aug. 21. Due to Western sanctions linked to the Ukraine conflict, Russia has fewer partners than before. Russian scientists are competing against India’s similar mission, aiming to land first. Yury Borisov, head of Roscosmos, expressed hope for a precise soft landing on the moon and spoke about waiting for the 21st, as reported by Interfax.

Besides elevating Russian prestige, a first-time landing at the pole could advance scientists’ knowledge about potential ice resources that could aid future human settlement by offering fuel, oxygen, and water.

The Luna-25 lander took off from the Vostochny Cosmodrome, located about 3,450 miles away from Moscow in Russia’s far east. This is Russia’s first moon mission since 1976 and happens as more countries are increasing their presence in space.

India’s Chandrayaan-3, a vehicle with a propulsion model, lander, and rover, is expected to land on the lunar south pole this month. China recently launched its first non-military astronaut into space for its new space station crew.

NASA is aiming to send humans on a trip around the moon in late 2024. This mission would take people far into space, something that hasn’t happened in a long time. After that, NASA wants to team up with SpaceX, an American company that makes spacecraft, to land on the moon in 2025.

The Luna-25 mission is really important for Russia and its President, Vladimir Putin. Sanctions because of the conflict in Ukraine have stopped Russia from working with the US and Europe on many space projects. This has made Russia work more closely with China, as China also wants to do more in space.

It seems that the important teamwork between the United States and Russia in space might be coming to an end now. Benjamin L Schmitt, who is an expert in physics and astronomy, said this in written comments to Wall Street Journal.

 People in the science and astronaut groups are starting to think that NASA and Roscosmos won’t be good friends anymore. The two space agencies have still been collaborating on sending crews to and managing the International Space Station.

Over 25 countries, including India, have accepted guidelines supported by the US for space exploration. Meanwhile, Russia and China are working together on the International Lunar Research Station, aiming to have a moon base by 2036. Due to US law since 2011, China has been prevented from cooperating with NASA.

President Putin wants to make sure that Russia keeps growing its space program, even with sanctions, because they’re proud of their past space achievements.

“We follow the dreams of our ancestors to make progress, even when faced with challenges and outside efforts to slow us down,” he mentioned during a visit to the Vostochny Cosmodrome soon after the invasion last year.

Roscosmos stated that the Luna-25, a 1,764-pound lander with four legs, will likely collect data on the moon’s surface for a year. It has a 1.6-meter-long Lunar Robotic Arm to pick up materials from the surface, as well as scientific tools for analyzing elements like plasma and dust in the moon’s polar exosphere.

“The south pole is important because it has a lot of water-ice and could be valuable for mining, industry, and eventually living,” 

A successful mission would show that Russia’s space work is still a significant ability for the country. This message is sent to the world by Putin. It’s an important sign not only for the West but also for China, which Russia is trying to involve in upcoming space missions

A successful result is crucial for Russia to ease concerns about its military strength compared to Ukraine. Analysts who study how the space industry affects Russian politics say that repeated battlefield setbacks have revealed technical and strategic weaknesses, so a positive outcome is needed.

Lately, there have been problems like launch failures, accidents during construction, corruption cases, and a lack of skilled people, all adding to what experts see as a growing crisis in Russia’s space industry. The situation is made worse by Western sanctions, including controls on exporting technology and limitations to weaken Russia’s aerospace and space sectors, which make the challenges for Russia’s space program even bigger.

At the very least, a successful Luna-25 mission could give the Putin government an opportunity to use its usual propaganda to downplay the sanctions’ impact on its advanced aerospace sector. On the other hand, if the mission fails in a notable way, it might show that the controls on exporting technology are indeed affecting the situation, as stated by Schmitt, who helped create Duke University’s Space Diplomacy Lab.

Pavel Luzin, who studies Russia’s space policy at a policy institution in Washington, explained that it’s hard for Russia to improve its space abilities because its aggressive and criminal behaviour have isolated it from other countries and people around the world.

According to Luzin, Russia’s Luna-25, Luna-26, and Luna-27 missions rely on European electronics and gear. He also mentioned that even if Russia acquired all the necessary items well before 2022, it would be challenging for Roscosmos to utilize them without collaborative relationships.

The mission to the moon’s south pole is really hard. Russian space experts haven’t done this before. The Vostochny Cosmodrome hasn’t had a launch like this either. People living nearby were asked to leave to stay safe from the rocket’s boosters when they came off from the main part.

The rugged moon terrain makes landing challenging. Even advanced countries like India, Israel, and Japan have attempted but failed to land successfully at the lunar south pole, indicating how tough it is.

Roscosmos leaders know the mission is risky. The agency’s head, Yuri Borisov, told Putin that such missions are always uncertain. He guessed the chance of success is around 70%.

NASA’s Bill Nelson said they hope Russia does well with Luna-25, but he doesn’t think Russia will put astronauts on the moon soon. He believes the real competition is between the U.S. and China.

In Russia, people are getting more and more excited. They’re proud that they were the first to send a person to space. A Soviet cosmonaut (astronaut)named Yuri Gagarin circled Earth in 1961 and amazed Americans. He’s still a hero in Russia, and Russian kids learn about his story in school.

State media has shared thorough information about the lunar lander, and TV commentators are enthusiastically talking about Russia’s space expertise. The event will likely be shown live non-stop. However, if something goes wrong, the consequences could be serious.

Author is Aerospace & Defence Analyst.

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