By Dr. Brajesh Kumar Tiwari

Winning in fantasy cricket isn’t about picking popular players, just as success in opinion trading isn’t about gut instinct. Both demand a sharp understanding of data, trends, and probabilities. The assumption that these platforms are purely for entertainment or speculation overlooks the depth of expertise they require. 

Fantasy cricket players meticulously analyze player statistics, pitch conditions, and team dynamics to make informed choices. Opinion trading builds on these foundations of fantasy cricket while introducing greater complexity and real-time decision-making, tracking market sentiment and data, to take positions on predictive outcomes. And just like fantasy cricket can be extremely challenging in certain matches where you just don’t know which players will come out on top of their matchups, opinion trading can be equally challenging because of the dynamic nature of the trades (and the concomitant pricing for it). 

There is a lot more that goes on in fantasy cricket and opinion trading that skilled players already understand. For instance, at its core, fantasy cricket is a strategic exercise in virtual team management, where participants build teams using real-world players, and their success depends on how those players perform in an actual match. The most skilled fantasy cricket players don’t just pick big-name stars—they study pitch conditions, weather forecasts, and historical data to select the right combination of players for a given match. A batter who thrives on a slow pitch may be a great choice for one game but a poor one for another. A bowler with an excellent track record in death overs may prove more valuable than someone who dominates in the early stages of an innings. Like a cricket captain setting his field, fantasy cricket requires careful decision-making based on data, not instinct alone. 

The one key difference is this: whereas in fantasy cricket, decisions are locked in before a match begins—like a captain finalizing a playing XI before the toss— opinion trading allows for mid-course corrections. A trader can hedge risks by taking an opposing position if market conditions change, much like a fielder adjusting his position after observing a batter’s tendencies. 

Consider the Women’s Indian Premier League 2025 Knockout match between Gujarat and Mumbai that took place on March 13, 2025. On a fantasy cricket app like Dream11, players can look at team data, pitch conditions, and individual player performances in the season to build a team that will give them the maximum points. This is what eventually determines the net winnings of the player, which showcases the level of research, knowledge of the sport, and statistical analysis that one needs to have to maximize returns.

Playing the field

Opinion trading works on a slightly different principle. For instance, on an opinion trading platform like Probo, the event will be: “Will Gujarat win the knockout match against Mumbai?” However, instead of building a team here, players have to take “Yes” and “No” positions on the overall outcome of the match. Think of this like the stock market, where players can take buy or sell positions based on their analysis of the market movement. 

Similarly in opinion trading, prices fluctuate in real-time, influenced by live developments, market sentiment, and trading patterns, requiring participants to integrate new information rapidly. This added complexity makes opinion trading fluid and adaptive, requiring constant monitoring and decision-making throughout an event. This approach is not dissimilar to financial trading, where professionals hedge risks, diversify portfolios, and employ strategic position exits to optimize returns. Opinion traders can exit the trades at any given point if they want to book profit or if their analysis reveals a different outcome than predicted to minimize losses.

Crucially, success in opinion trading extends beyond statistical expertise—it hinges on a deep understanding of behavioral economics and crowd psychology. Skilled traders must interpret market sentiment and anticipate collective reactions, blending psychological insight with data-driven strategy. Mastering opinion trading, in short, requires the ability to decode market psychology, anticipate shifts, and adapt strategies in real time. Success is not a matter of luck but of calculated precision.  

The Numbers Tell the Story

Seasoned players, both in fantasy as well as opinion trading, consistently outperform casual participants because they refine their strategies over time, learning from past mistakes and improving their player selection process. 

Data supports this: in opinion trading, participants with over a hundred events under their belt tend to have significantly higher success rates than newcomers, with experienced traders achieving success rates exceeding 82%, compared to 59% for novices. Furthermore, skilled traders implement strategic exits in 80% of their positions, correlating with success rates above 85%. 

All of this empirical evidence makes one thing clear: success in both arenas is a product of skill, not chance. The skill ceiling for consistent and long-term success in both fantasy cricket and opinion trading is high, eliminating the myth that both of these are luck-based games. Knowledge, analysis, and strategic execution consistently set top performers apart. 

Just as a cricket match is won through calculated risks, smart field placements, and well-timed decisions rather than blind luck, so too are victories in fantasy sports and opinion trading secured by those who approach them with discipline and expertise. Depending on the event, the complexity of making decisions in both scenarios varies greatly, putting both opinion trading and fantasy cricket in a league of their own.

The myth that these are just games of luck fails to recognize the depth of strategy involved. For those who enjoy the intellectual challenge of forecasting and decision-making, both offer an arena where skill, not fortune, ultimately prevails.

The author is Associate Professor, Atal School of Management (ABVSME), Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU). (Views expressed are the author’s own and not necessarily those of financialexpress.com)