Just one week before the much-anticipated American presidential poll, where change versus experience is one of the key election themes, the powerful message of change has emerged victorious in a tiny nation of a thousand islands in the Indian Ocean. With the promise to change, Mohamed ?Anni? Nasheed forced a run-off in the maiden democratic vote in Maldives earlier this month with incumbent Maumoon Abdul Gayoom and beat him in Tuesday?s run-off. It has been a remarkable journey for Nasheed, a one-time Amnesty International ?prisoner of conscience?, from prison cell to the presidential palace.
Nasheed?s victory ends the 30-year-reign of Gayoom, the longest-serving leader in Asia. He has won six previous elections but had never before faced an opponent in them. Since 1978, Gayoom was elected in ?yes or no? referendums, typical of despots in one-party states. After Gayoom claimed majorities of over 90% in six previous one-candidate referendums, held under tight government control, it was doubted if he would ever hand over power after the multi-party election. The polls are the culmination of a five-year reform process in the former British protectorate sparked by international criticism over crackdowns on pro-democracy protests headed by Nasheed and his Maldivian Democratic Party.
Opposition figures aver that Gayoom never wanted to hold the election but was forced to do so for the mounting domestic and international pressure. A reform process began after widespread protests that were sparked by the death of a prisoner in jail in 2003. Under pressure from abroad and growing street protests, Gayoom began a democratic reform programme in 2004, lifting the ban on opposition parties, supporting a new Constitution and committing to holding the nation?s first multiparty presidential election in October.
Conceding defeat, Gayoom said that he would give his ?full support and cooperation? to Nasheed taking power. But there was also an elegiac tone to some of his remarks as he called on the winner of the presidential elections to accept this new era of democracy with full responsibility. But it was almost a no-win situation for Gayoom. Come off as anything less than fully committed to a smooth transition and risk looking like a sore loser. Come off too strong and risk push-back from his own disappointed backers, or worse, look insincere to the reform path he has charted for the country, albeit under duress.
To be fair to him, Gayoom will be best remembered abroad for his highlighting the threat of climate change which threatens to wipe his tiny coral islands and super luxury tourism hotspot off the face of the earth. He once said that a one-metre rise in sea levels could submerge his entire country. He is also credited with laying the foundations of tourism infrastructure that led to the thriving industry. Although he steered the Maldives to become the richest South Asian nation, thanks to tourism, his reign had become increasingly unpopular. Despite the beauty of the Maldives and its popularity as holiday destination for the rich, 40% of the population earn less than a dollar a day. The country is beset with corruption, an acute housing shortage and a serious drug problem said to affect one in three youngsters. Social discord has encouraged religious extremism and Male suffered its first terrorist attack last year. Gayoom survived an assassination attempt in January.
The election result showed that the opposition had united to oust Gayoom, whose long tenure had been the biggest issue for his campaign managers with younger voters demanding a change. Nasheed, who spent six years in jail, and was described by Amnesty International as a ?prisoner of conscience? has said that greater respect for human rights remains a key ingredient of his agenda. As a political moderate, he has promised good government and pledged to root out corruption, improve healthcare and communications to remote islands, cut state spending and turn the opulent presidential palace into the first university in the country.
His mission is clear, but far from simple. Mounting socio-economic problems, like drug abuse and widening income inequalities, await his attention, too. The sustainability of the country?s rapid and often ill-planned tourism development and its impact to its fragile environment also remains a live issue. A key political test would be whether he is fully committed to the campaign promise of stronger parliament, to which elections are due in March, that is empowered to check presidential powers.
The best outcome of the elections is perhaps the courage the people of Maldives have shown in voting out of office a president who allegedly ruled for three decades like a sultan. Having tested the tolerance level of the regime in the preliminary round of election held on October 9, in which no candidate won a minimum of 50% of votes polled, they voted overwhelmingly to make a transition from an autocracy to a flourishing multiparty democracy. More than anyone else in his country now, progress on that score would hang heavily on Nasheed. His steps would be watched by not only the Maldivians who voted for change they believed in, but also their well-wishers abroad like India.
rajiv.jayaram@expressindia.com