The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) estimates that the Indian telecom sector will grow to Rs 5.21 lakh crore in market size from the current Rs 3 lakh crore by FY15. In its whitepaper titled ‘Digital India – The $100 billion prize’, BCG highlights how telecom operators can unlock future growth by creating new services that drive traffic and revenues. With this, the sector would also entail a capital investment of about Rs 1,32,000-155,000 crore by FY15, mainly as 2G and 3G capex, backhaul, expanding national coverage and data centres. ?To fund the network enhancements, operators will need to find creative ways to collaborate with one another and participate in the government’s public- spending programs,? said Arvind Subramanian, partner & director, BCG.
It further said that growth in traditional voice will be limited and that going forward, services will drive traffic growth. With this, while the average revenue per subscriber per month will break down to Rs 0.34, revenue per minute will slump to Rs 0.43. Also, the subscriber growth will increase to about 920 million from 742 million (as of Oct 31, 2010). However, the dual sim phenomenon will also rise from the current 20% of the total subscriber base to 40%. Overall revenue growth for the telecom industry is expected at 12.5% per annum.
Also, by FY15, services will become the entry point for customers. The growth will be uneven, driven by services like managed services enabled by cloud, machine to machine applications and retail data. “These opportunities will be enabled by rollout of 3G and wireless broadband networks, technological development in devices and fall in device prices,” said Subramanian. “With the right networks, products and prices in place and with continued widespread penetration of mobile connectivity, operators will need to start offering the right services,” he added.