The arrests late last month of 10 Russian deep cover espionage agents from leafy suburbs of the US east coast have grabbed eyeballs of disbelief and nostalgia in the West for the ?good old days? of cloak and dagger intelligence wars with the Soviet Union. What particularly fascinated the media about the Russians nabbed after a seven-year-long investigation by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) were their fake identities, ingenious methods and die-hard loyalty to Russian nationalism that had been concealed through calculated immersion into typical American lifestyles for a decade.
The expos? of Russians who had sunk in deep American roots by buying homes, getting jobs and minding teenagers has throwback value to an older generation, which grew up on thrills about legendary ?illegals? planted by the Soviet-era KGB.
But commentators have deduced from the FBI?s light charges that the latest Russian sleuths were white elephants who never justified their bills by sourcing any worthwhile US state secrets to their paymasters in Moscow. Apparently tasked with ferreting out information on sensitive topics like American nuclear weapons, foreign policy towards Iran, and Congressional politics, the Russians leading double lives in New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Virginia were recycling publicly available trivia in their coded dispatches. HDS Greenway mocked in the IHT that, for all their troubles, these Russians got a ?glimpse into grandmother?s attic?, landing ?nothing classified?.
Indeed, the significance of the spy ring?s corralling lies not in its technical success or failure but in the larger readjustment of diplomatic relations between erstwhile foes. Many were puzzled by the timing of the FBI?s disclosures because they came within days of a photo-op cheeseburger-and-cola lunch summit between Presidents Dmitry Medvedev and Barack Obama in Arlington, Virginia. The atmospherics of spontaneity and fast progressing ?reset? in relations between the world?s two strongest military powers could not have asked for a worse public relations jolt than the espionage drama.
The two governments have reacted in conciliatory language and are believed to be working behind-the-scenes to hush up the spy ring contretemps through a prisoner swap deal, indicating continuity of political will on both sides to plough ahead with improvement of ties. Russia and the US have mended fences in the last year and half since Obama came to power with a determination to avoid escalation of a ?second Cold War? that had been unleashed by hawks in the George W Bush administration.
The gravity of an economic downturn since 2008 in Russia due to a fall in world energy prices and a stock market bear run coincided with Obama?s good intentions, and helped soften the Cold War-like lenses that Moscow had trained on Washington since the turn of the century.
US rapprochement with Russia proceeded in fits and starts but has yielded some champagne-uncorking moments such as the Kremlin?s green signal in February 2009 to allow transit of US military supplies for the war in Afghanistan through Russian territory abutting Kazakhstan. In September 2009, Obama announced a reversal of the Bush administration?s controversial agenda of installing a missile defence shield in central and eastern Europe that had been aimed right at the heart of Russia. Obama?s winds of ?change? seemed to have echoed in the mind of the congenitally suspicious Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who piloted the landmark signing of a nuclear arms reduction treaty in April 2010, dubbed as the ?New START? pact. Russia also inched closer to Washington?s Iran-punishing penchant by voting in favour of another round of UN sanctions against Tehran in June this year.
That a certain degree of mutual understanding had matured in US-Russia relations of late was most recently revealed in the measured responses from Washington and Moscow to the political and ethnic turmoil in Kyrgyzstan. Once rioting and mass displacement had erupted in the southern Kyrgyz cities of Osh and Jalalabad, the country?s interim leader Roza Otunbayeva appealed to Moscow for Russian troops to help stabilise the situation and restore law and order. Russia, which could have jumped at the opportunity to expand its military footprint in yet another corner of its ?near abroad?, did not oblige.
The most likely reason behind Russia?s reluctance to take advantage of Kyrgyzstan?s woes was fear of upsetting the ?reset? with the US. Since both Russia and the US had been co-existing with military bases on Kyrgyz soil for years, Moscow may not have wished to inundate the country with the Russian army and invite stern criticism from the US.
Yet, for all these positive tides in US-Russia relations, it is mistaken to conclude that genuine trust has been established. Moscow insists on its right to withdraw from the ?New START? agreement if there is qualitative or quantitative increase in US strategic missile defence structures in the future. Russia remains wary of US conventional weapons superiority and hence does not wish to commit to deeper joint cuts in tactical nukes. The two sides are still locking horns over Russia?s territorial spat with Georgia, with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton labelling the presence of Russian forces in Abkhazia and South Ossetia as an ?occupation?, earlier this week. The Russian foreign ministry promptly retorted that such language had ?absolutely no basis?.
In such a context of warming but not cosy relations, Russia?s external intelligence agency, the SVR, will not leave any stone unturned to pry into aspects of US strategic policy affecting Russian interests. The US Central Intelligence Agency would likewise return the honours. The suburbia spy ring may have been clumsy, but it reflects the underlying realpolitik logic of two great powers unsure of each other?s intentions.
?The author is associate professor of world politics at the OP Jindal Global University