Chief Minister Mayawati has, without doubt, set a cat among the pigeons. Her masterstroke, announcing a division of Uttar Pradesh into four separate states, and the subsequent passage of the cabinet?s recommendation by the state legislature, has kept the best of minds guessing as to what could be the possible contour of these proposed states if the proposal gets the green signal from the Centre. The effort is all the more nerve racking as the state government is unwilling to spell out the demarcating lines clearly as yet. Conjectures abound as to which division or district would go which way: Would Poorvanchal Pradesh encompass eight divisions, as per the economic regions demarcated by the planning department of Uttar Pradesh, or would it be made more logical to give away Devipatan, Faizabad and Allahabad divisions in favour of Awadh Pradesh to have a more balanced central as well as eastern state? For, if these divisions are kept intact in Poorvcanchal, the state would have 28 districts and central UP would be left with just 13 districts spread over two divisions of Kanpur and Lucknow. And if these divisions come central UP?s way, Poorvanchal will have 18 districts, while central UP will have 24.

While presumptions and calculations do the rounds, we think it best to stick to the planning department?s division of the state into four broad economic regions that it uses to work out the state policies, for our own analysis of what could be the shape of things to come if these states are formed at all. What are their unique strengths and where lies the opportunity to strike a successful balance between the challenges and the difficulties that will come their way? What are the socio-economic factors that would drive these new states and how viable would it be for them to survive in terms of revenue collection and natural resources?

Poorvanchal, as the name suggests, falls on the eastern side of the present Uttar Pradesh and is likely to encompass 28 districts, with Allahabad, Varanasi and Gorakhpur being its growth centres, while Pashchimanchal, or the western side of the present state, would roughly have 26 districts and its major ports of destination are likely to be Agra, Gautam Buddha Nagar, or Greater Noida, as it is popularly known, Meerut, Saharanpur, Moradabad, Aligarh and Bareilly. The state of Bundelhand is likely to encompass seven districts, with Jhansi, Chitrakoot, Banda and Lalitpur being its nerve centres, and lastly, Awadh Pradesh, or central UP, is likely be spread over 14 districts with Lucknow and Kanpur being the two most important cities.

‘Power’ful Poorvanchal

Poorvanchal, widely known for its extreme backwardness and lack of proper infrastructure, ravaging floods, low per capita income and HDI indices, is likely to emerge as a power hub of the future, with a majority of the powerhouses based in this region. In Sonebhadra district alone, there are six functioning power houses and three proposed projects likely to come up in the near future, which would jointly produce a whopping 7,600 mw of power. In Allahabad district, another 5,940 mw is likely to be generated from three other under-construction projects.

Apart from power, agriculture is a major opportunity for this region, thanks to the belt being situated mainly on the banks of the fertile Ganga. But fragmented land holdings and annual floods often take away whatever advantage cultivators get from the fertile land. The once-thriving Banarasi silk and brocade industry is also ailing. Cheap competition from Chinese goods and low investment in modern techniques have forced the traditional handicraft to go into oblivion.

Religious tourism, both Hindu and Buddhist, have immense scope in this eastern state. While Sarnath, Kushinagar, Shravasti form a major Buddhist circuit, which lakhs of national and international tourists visit every year, the timeless mystique of Banaras ghats also draws people from all over the world.

The world-famous carpet industry of Bhadohi, spread across Mirzapur, Bhadohi and Varanasi districts, is also on the verge of extinction due to a number of reasons. Lack of skilled labour, flight of labour due to MNREGA projects, Chinese competition and global recession are some factors that have hit the sector badly.

The standard of the people living here is also low, with major human development indicators such as health and education being the lowest in some regions, along with Bundelkhand.

?Uttar Pradesh, with its 200 million population, 75 districts and 400-odd MLAs is simply ungovernable and unmanageable. Smaller states would ensure focused attention on local aspirations. As independent states, each can focus on issues that are at present regional. Then these issues will turn central and each can have a development plan to work on and can prosper with some initial support. Focused attention on local issues and development of industry can reverse the trend that we see at present,? feels Dr AK Singh, director of Giri Institute of Development Studies, Lucknow.

Issues that at present are not very high on the state government?s agenda, such as Japanese Encephalitis, reviving age-old crafts like Banaras silk and carpet weaving through special packages, sustained attention on developing the Buddhist circuit and having an international airport at Kushinagar, can be tackled very effectively by a regional government, rather than one sitting far away, think experts.

?The state of Uttarakhand can be taken as a model. When it was part of Uttar Pradesh, the pace of development was not as fast as it is today. Issues that needed immediate attention had to travel all the way to Lucknow to find a patient hearing. And for Lucknow too, it was difficult to administer a unit from afar. It was like running that part of the state through a remote control. On many occasions, we were left groping in the dark, trying to understand how to address an issue. But once regional issues become state issues, government departments will be able to focus better and the scale of the economy will also move faster,? opines a state government official, who does not wish to be named.

Prosperous Paschimanchal

Paschimanchal, on the other hand, is likely to be the more advanced and prosperous state. With impressive per capita income, large entrepreneurial skill, an effective network of roads and bridges, robust tourism, and an export hub with a variety of things ranging from Moradabad brassware to Meerut sports goods to Saharanpur wood carvings and inlay work, Paschimanchal has many more growth centres than any other region and already looks ‘viable’. Around 50% of UP?s industries are concentrated in the western part of UP at present, with leather and footware being the most important ones. Add to this the fact that the west is dotted with centres of immense tourist interest. Agra is the most popular international tourist destination in the country because of three Unesco World Heritage sites of Taj Mahal, Agra Fort and Fatehpur Sikri, while for the religiously inclined, Mathura and Vrindavan are a must visit.

Sugar cultivation also forms a major part of agriculture in this region, with a majority of sugar mills and distilleries situated here. Of the total 128 sugar mills in the state, 77 are in the west, which is also known to have the best sugarcane in the country.

Again, with the soon to be completed Yamuna Expressway connecting the region to the national capital of Delhi and the Delhi-Mumbai industrial corridor also coming up along some stretches of the western part, the region is likely to see a major boost in urbanisation, with a growing demand for commercial as well as residential spaces. In fact, the region has already started showing immense growth potential in the real estate sector.

Untapped Bundelkhand

The case of Bundelkhand is the most interesting one. Despite having some of the better indicators, such as a higher per capita income as compared to eastern UP and the best literacy rate in the state, the region is dubbed as the most backward and poverty stricken by warring political parties. The region has always hogged political limelight, with both the state government and the Centre blaming each other?s apathy responsible for the ?backwardness? of the state. Special packages have been demanded and allegations have been rife here, as in Poorvanchal, that central grants have been siphoned away by corrupt officials instead of reaching the real beneficiaries.

While some feel that Bundelkhand, if made a separate state, will fall deeper into the trap of corruption, there are others who feel that Bundelkhand is an apt case for a separate state. Conceding the fact that the region has very low rainfall and low productivity of foodgrains, it is still the highest producer of oilseeds and pulses in the country. Arvind Mohan, a leading economist and a professor in the department of economics, Lucknow University, feels, ?There are many opportunities waiting to be tapped in Bundelkhand. The first big opportunity is in the production of pulses and oilseeds. Bundelkhand outperforms not only the other three regions of the state in the production of pulses and oilseeds, but the rest of the country as well. The production of pulses and oilseeds is close to 80 kg per capita, as against an average of 3 kg in the other three regions. The region also has a huge opportunity to turn a major exporter in this sector.?

He adds, ?The second opportunity is the tourism potential of the region. Along with 14 districts of Madhya Pradesh, which are likely to be joined with the seven of UP to form the final Bundelkhand region, the state will have the world-famous Khajuraho as a tourist destination, along with Jhansi and Chitrakoot. In fact, tourism, agriculture and food processing industries have significant potential in all the four zones. Food processing, agriculture and textiles are the three major industries of the 21st century and all the four regions of UP have phenomenal opportunities in these sectors. All we need to do is exploit these opportunities and turn them into niche expertise areas.? Another important factor in Bundelkhand would be the immense mineral wealth that the region has. Sand, glass, silica and granite mining is done extensively, as is stone quarrying. Of late, satellite pictures have also indicated that the area is rich in precious minerals such as diamond, platinum, gold, silica phosphate, as well as uranium. If these studies are accurate, the region could literally be sitting on a gold mine, feel experts.

Awadh Pradesh: how viable?

The Awadh region, the present seat of power, has a fair sprinkling of everything. Industries, especially medium and small enterprises (MSMEs), abound in the industrial areas of both Kanpur and Lucknow. Kanpur has a thriving leather and saddlery industry, as well as a hosiery industry that have immense export potential. Sugar factories, agriculture and tourism are the other important sectors that will play an important part if this area is carved out as a separate state. Lucknow has been a tourist haven, especially because of its ?nawabi connection?. Chikankari and zardozi industries, which are trying their best to bridge the critical gap between tradition and modernity, will go a long way to make the state economically viable if proper attention is given to them. The huge memorials built by chief minister Mayawati in memory of Dalit icons are also turning into tourist attractions, even if for their curiosity value. ?With smaller cities and towns expected to become future growth pockets, all eyes are now on these smaller states, which could be better administered. The potential is there, all that needs to be done is to provide critical back-up support initially and give them time for fruition. The success of smaller states like Haryana and Uttarakhand makes us positive about the future of these four proposals too. At the end of the day, all that is important is how well these states are governed and how good are the administrative checks. The quality of the leadership is what that matters,? says Mohan.

AK Singh, too, feels that there is no doubt that smaller states are efficiently managed and faster development in backward parts is possible only when they are of manageable proportions. ?If each region is an independent state, it can follow a development plan better,? he says, but feels that more attention needs to be given to the fact whether UP should be divided into four states or three. ?While the demand for a separate Bundelkhand is genuine, we can have the rest of the state in two parts. East of Lucknow can be one part and west of Lucknow can be the other. The logic and demand for having an Awadh Pradesh needs to be debated properly,? he says.