On a day when finance minister Pranab Mukherjee had to talk up the economy saying India?s growth drivers were broadly intact despite the central bank?s assault on inflation, the country?s weathermen gave him reason to smile.

The southwest monsoon has covered more than 50% of the area within first two weeks of its progress and there is a high probability that it would advance to most parts of the country in the next couple of weeks, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday. Historical data show this implies a good monsoon ahead with the right distribution of rainfall among crop-rich regions by mid July.

Monsoon rainfall is vital for the country?s farm output and overall GDP growth.

An IMD official told FE that out of 36 meteorological subdivisions in the country, the rainfall during the first fortnight of this month has been ‘excess’ in 15, ‘normal’ in 10 and ?deficient? or ?scanty? in 11. During last year, which saw a normal monsoon, rainfall was below normal by mid June.

After a negative growth (-0.1%) in 2008-09 and a marginal (0.4%) growth in 2009-10, farm GDP expanded 5.4% in 2010-11, which saw a normal monsoon. Growth this year is expected to be the same as last year, if monsoon is normal and rainfall distribution is even. ?Agriculture and allied sectors? account for over 14% of India?s GDP.

The IMD official added that conditions were favourable for further advance of monsoon over remaining parts of Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, east Uttar Pradesh and some parts of Madhya Pradesh during the next two-three days.

?The normal progress of monsoon is expected to boost production of key crops such as rice, oilseeds and sugarcane besides keeping food inflation under control,? said PK Joshi, senior programme coordinator, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFFRI).

?Overall, the progress of monsoon ? which is vital for paddy, oil seeds and sugar production ? has been normal,? the IMD official said. Cumulative seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole during the first two weeks of June has been 3% above the long period average (LPA), he added. This implies that against a ?normal? rainfall of 61.4 mm, the actual rainfall during the period was 63.5 mm. The LPA is the average rainfall during each year between 1951 and 2000 and is regarded as a benchmark. The cumulative seasonal rainfall was 46% and 19% above the LPA over south peninsula and central India respectively; however, it is deficient by 34% over east and north-east India, an IMD statement said.

The June-September monsoon had entered Kerala and the Andamans on May 29, a few days ahead of schedule. Most of the eastern, southern (except Tamil Nadu), western and northern regions depend on monsoon for sowing kharif crops.

Reports of smooth progress of monsoon come at a time when the IMD is preparing to release the second stage long-range forecast for the 2011 monsoon season rainfall for the country next week.

Meanwhile, an agriculture ministry statement on the progress of kharif crops said that rice has been sown in 10.35 lakh hectare till date as compared to 10.32 lakh hectare of last year?s acreage. Cotton has been sown in 21.65 lakh hectare as compared to 15.42 lakh hectare last year. Pulses have been sown in 2.86 lakh hectare so far, which is 5,000 hectare more than last year.

While the normal monsoon leads to better grain production as close to 60% of the country’s agricultural activity depends on south-west monsoon, deficiency in rainfall can affect commodities such as rice, sugar, wheat, oilseeds and spices.

According to reports, with heavy rains lashing most of the eastern parts of the country in the last few days, paddy sowing is expected to commence during next few weeks.

?The progress of monsoon has been satisfactory in key paddy-growing areas of eastern and north-eastern parts of the country and sowing is expected to complete over the next few weeks,? TK Adhya, director, Central Rice Research Institute (CRRI), a premier institute under Indian Council for Agricultural Research (ICAR) said.

Agriculture secretary PK Basu recently hinted at a record rice production of 102 million tonnes during 2011-12. In 2010-11, rice production was around 94.01 million tonnes.