Is the city of Mumbai prepared for the rains? Can a repeat of the July 26, 2005 situation, when the city was paralysed due to floods, be averted? Officials at the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) have admitted that though several measures have been taken to avoid a repeat of the July 2005 situation, the city cannot be said to be ?flood proof?. In his weekly press briefing, Municipal Commissioner Jairaj Phatak admitted that the city was not equipped to handle more than 25 mm of rainfall per hour coupled with high tide of more than 4.5 metres. In store for the city this monsoon is 22 such days of which at least five days can experience a high tide in excess of 4.5 meters. The city was brought to a standstill for three days, when a high tide of 4.48 metres and a rainfall of 994 mm had wreaked havoc on July 26, ?05. Over 800 people died and damages to property was estimated at over Rs 1000 crore.

This year, on July 24, at 2.03 pm Mumbai will record a high tide at 5.05 meters, a record in the last 100 years. The high tide a day earlier will also be at 5.01 meters. A check list reveals some of the equipments planned to respond to such a situation have not reached and the ones that have are not ready for use. The Doppler radar that could be used for accurate prediction of rainfall has been finally brought from China but will be useful only next monsoon. Contour mapping of the city, that could help the BMC improve its drain system, will be ready only next year. Base map survey is over two years old after it was envisaged, but the mapping is still months away.

Miles to go?

The BMC claims to have done 65% drain cleaning and pre-monsoon road works have been ?satisfactorily? completed but some roads like the LBS Marg and SV Road remain a cause for concern. The BRIMSTOWAD (Brihanmumbai Storm Water Drain) project, that will augment the rainwater receding capacity from 25 mm to 50 mm, has been delayed by over 10 years and will take at least two more years to complete.

Two years after work began; the BMC?s much awaited BRIMSTOWAD project will not have a single pumping station ready to provide relief this monsoon. As part of Phase 1 of the BRIMSTOWAD, the civic administration had assured that of the four proposed floodwater pumping stations, at least those at Haji Ali and Irla, would be ready to flush out floodwater from low-lying areas during high tide. However, senior civic officials have confirmed that even with time ticking away, it will be difficult to finish the work in time for the monsoons.

Adolf D?Souza, Corporator, said that the Irla nullah which overflows during the monsoon causing flooding in Juhu was to be completed in November 2008. ?It was an unrealistic deadline,? said D?Souza. ?It has been extended twice. The administrative building and the pump room are still under construction. But I am happy that three flood gates have been put up. At least the sea water will not flood into the area this monsoon.?

The roadblocks

The Mithi River or Mahim River on which the city of Mumbai is located, is seasonal and swells during the monsoons. It is much abused by encroachment and pollution, but it has received a fresh lease of life with a group of environmentalists, inspired by Magsaysay Award-winning conservationist, Rajendra Singh. He said there is less flow at Mithi due to ?water being drawn out from the water table?. Hence, discharge is more than recharge. There is no cause for alarm, says D Kawathkar, Joint Project Director, Mumbai Metropolitan Regional Development Authority (MMRDA). ?The river has been cleaned and widened.?

Neera Punj, Convenor, CitiSpace, a NGO, is skeptical about Mumbai?s flood preparedness. ?There is a huge amount of obstruction due to the ongoing work at various public spaces by the MMRDA, and some projects have come to a halt. The MMRDA and BMC blame each other for it. No matter who is carrying out the project work, it should have been stopped three to four months before the monsoons. There are debris lying in various places and these will choke the roads and cause traffic problems.?

Some are optimistic and believe the situation in Mumbai is not so grim. ?When the floods brought Mumbai to a standstill in 2005, there were only two rain gauges. The first phase of the work has been complete and today we have 35 tipping point gauges,? informed Professor Kapil Gupta, Department of Civil Engineering IIT, Mumbai who is on the National Disaster Management Advisory Committee. ?This time around there is a Mumbai Flood Monitoring system that will record real time rainfall as it happens. We have chosen models that do not use electricity to do this.?

Mumbai?s lifeline

The BMC?s Disaster Management Cell is prepared for the monsoons, reiterates Joint Municipal Commissioner (Disaster Management), SS Shinde. ?In case of flooding, we have taken precautions to see there is minimum inconvenience to citizens. The aim is to avoid loss of life and damage to property. We have identified areas prone to floods and prepared for responses and mitigation.? Mumbai?s lifeline, the suburban local trains, will not grind to a standstill in the rains. Srinivas Mudgerikar, Chief PRO, Central Railway is assured about that. ?The culverts and drainage have been cleaned, pumps have been put to flush out water in low lying areas.?

In spite of all this, Mudgerikar said, when the first showers come, a lot of garbage from outside will flow into the drainage and block it thus affecting the railways. Continued electricity supply to the city during the monsoons has been factored in by the major electricity boards. Tata Power officials said they have taken adequate measures ? cleaning storm water drains around its receiving stations, regular inspection of transformers and transmission lines. Reliance Energy has initiated an action plan to meet requirements arising out of various situations during monsoons, such as water logging, power failures, electrical shocks and sparks to minimise inconvenience to consumers.

If, after all the proposed measures having been undertaken, the city grinds to a standstill, what will be the estimated loss? Ajit Ranade, economist, said that the city (Mumbai and Greater Mumbai), generates an income of around Rs 400-500 crore daily. Of this 30% is contributed by the daily wage earners and retail trade. If the city is brought to a standstill by heavy rains, the retail trade stands to lose around Rs 100-150 crore daily.?