While the rest of the country sweats it out due to outages, five states ? Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and West Bengal ? are expected to become surplus in round-the-clock power supply this year.
The country’s overall peak power shortage varied between 4,836 mw and 7,183 mw during June 5-9 as 34,000 mw, or nearly one-fifth of the total conventional generating capacity monitored by central transmission utility Power Grid, remained stranded. Fuel shortage is cited as the key reason for under-utilization of generating capacity.
The southern region, which is cut-off from the national grid, is the worst hit. Peak power shortage in the region was estimated at 2,353-4,211 mw last week.
On Monday, the average price for power supply to southern states at the Indian Energy Exchange ( IEX) was Rs 4.5 a unit as compared to Rs 2 a unit for other regions. Among southern states, Andhra Pradesh is the worst affected. The state faced shortage of 1,064 mw during peak hours. Tamil Nadu reported a shortfall of 631 mw, Kerala 518 mw and Karnataka 345 mw.
The northern region is also facing power shortage, though not as acute as reported by the southern states. The peak power shortage in the region is estimated at 1464-1640 mw during the last week. Power is available in the free market. But facing cash crunch, state electricity boards ( SEBs) are resorting to load-sheddding instead of meeting the shortfall from the market. ?SEBs are not buying power. As a result, consumers are forced to use diesel-generated electricity which is costly,? said RV Shahi, former Union power secretary.
But that has not stopped India from adding generation capacity. The country expects to add more than 18,000-mw capacity in 2013-14.
If things go according to plan, these five states ? West Bengal, Chhattisgarh in addition to Himachal, Haryana and MP ? should become power surplus, said the central electricity authority (CEA).
According to industry watchers, Punjab and Maharashtra too could join the big league over next 2-3 years if their capacity-addition programmes go according to plan.
Punjab will achieve self-sufficiency in power availability if projects being developed by private players ? GVK, L&T and Sterlite — with contract to sell power to the state are commissioned as per schedule. These projects will together provide 3,000 mw supply to the state. Maharashtra is banking on projects being set up by private players and state-owned NTPC.
?Calculations about states like Punjab and Maharashtra becoming self-sufficient in power supply are based on the assumption that their plants will be able to run at normal plant load factor (PLF),? Shubhranshu Patnaik, senior director, Deloitte, told FE.
Of the new capacity expected to become operational this year, about 15,000 mw is to be based on coal where generation level will critically depend on coal availability. If developers fail to arrange enough coal, they will have to run plants below normal capacity. In that case, CEA?s projections on surplus electricity could go haywire. Similarly, Punjab?s plan to achieve self sufficiency could also derail.
A big chunk of rural population still does not have access to electricity and per capital electricity consumption is just 24% of the world average. In view of that, the talk of surplus power may sound hollow to many.
For one, VP Raja, chairman, Mahrashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission, said, ?To say that we are surplus in power would not be correct given that there is a lot of suppressed demand for power.?