Often considered as an indicator of the IT industry?s overall performance, Infosys? revenue guidance for FY13 is expected to be in lower double digits in line with Nasscom?s growth projection of 11-14% for the industry, according to analysts.

Standard Chartered, interestingly, has not ruled out a surprise outlook of 13-16% ahead of the industry forecast.

For the fourth quarter ended March, brokerages Angel Borking and Sharekhan are predicting the IT bellwether to lag behind in terms of volume growth with TCS leading the pack. Sequentially, Infosys is expected to post a muted revenue growth and a likely fall in margins due to lower volume, rupee appreciation and continued delays in decision making. Analysts expect margins to fall in the range of 140-160 basis points to 32%, unlike the previous quarter when falling rupee improved profitability. In Q3 alone, rupee declined 7.7% against the dollar.

Over the last few quarters, the IT major has failed to meet the upper end of its revenue guidance. During the third quarter ended December, Infosys cut its dollar revenue forecast for the financial year to 16.4% against 17.1-19.1% projected during October quarter. So far, the software services firm has cut its forecast in dollar terms twice.

?Given the uncertainty in the global market, we expect a more realistic guidance from Infosys this time. The initial revenue outlook is likely to be in lower double digits of around 12-14%,? said Sanjeev Hota, assistant vice-president, IT research, Sharekhan.

Ashish Chopra, analyst with Motilal Oswal, expects Infosys? Q4 dollar revenue to be flat at $1,808 million, in line with the company?s guidance. ?In rupee term, revenue is expected to decline 2.6% quarter-on-quarter to Rs 90.7 billion. Flat revenue, rupee appreciation and continued hiring are expected to pull Ebitda margin down by 100 bp quarter-on-quarter to 32.7%,? Chopra said.

According to a note from Angel Broking, the firm?s profitability is expected to decline by 2.6%, as volumes remain flat quarter-on-quarter. Sharekhan predicts net profit to fall by 2.4% sequentially to R2,316 crore.

For the IT sector January-March is a crucial period as the IT budgets for the calender year are finalised. ?There have been some delays in decision making and also, the actual amount of spends as compared to budgets are relatively lower this fiscal,? said Dipen Shah, head, fundamental research, Kotak Securities. ?The guidance from Infosys will be even more important this time. With continuing uncertainty on depending decisions largely discretionary spends, the guidance may be conservative,? Shah said.

Infosys hiring guidance, which is seen as a barometer of the global demand environment, is another key area to watch out for during the Q4 announcement, experts feel. For FY13, analysts expects Infosys to recruit anywhere between 35,000 and 40,000 people.

According to experts increments across the industry are not likely to exceed the mid to high single-digit range this year. V Balakrishnan, CFO, Infosys, had told FE earlier: ?In all likelihood, wage hikes will be in higher single digits and not in double digits. This is likely to happen for the whole industry.?