As Operation Odyssey Dawn?the Western bombing campaign in Libya?enters its second week, expectations that it would be a short and clinical intervention to enforce UN Security Council Resolution 1973 are proving overoptimistic. Facing scathing political pressure at home not to entangle the US in yet another war in the Middle East, President Barack Obama has tried to assure Americans that the US-led air strikes on the Libyan despot Muammar Qaddafi?s missile defences and troops would be limited in scope and duration.
But hopes of quick and surgical multilateral military action to protect Libyan civilians from Qaddafi?s ?no mercy? onslaught are being defied by ground realities. Although the rebels had pleaded that disabling the Qaddafi regime?s air superiority through an internationally-imposed no-fly zone would be sufficient to level the playing field and inspire the Libyan people to rid themselves of Qaddafi once and for all, the balance of power in ground forces and artillery is currently loaded in favour of the regime and against the rebels.
This is why Western fighter jets are now directly strafing pro-Qaddafi ground troop formations. Providing air cover to the rebels to assist them in their attempt to march on Tripoli and overthrow Qaddafi does not comport with UN Resolution 1973, but it is nonetheless happening because goals cannot be neatly compartmentalised or limited in war. If the real aim of the allies is to avoid a ?humanitarian catastrophe? and to protect Libyan people from being massacred by Qaddafi?s loyalist tribes and mercenary units, then the only viable method is to assist the ragtag rebels to capture power throughout Libya.
Short of full measures and overwhelming force from outside powers, Libya?s self-proclaimed ?Great Leader? will make tactical retreats and keep returning to his terrorist tactics of deliberately killing civilians to demonstrate the high cost of disobedience. While Qaddafi is a wily survivor for over four decades known for many a chameleon-like compromise with the West, it is unlikely that he would extend a hand of conciliation to the rebels if the allies keep the pressure through aerial bombing and missile hits. When regime survival is at stake, Qaddafi has never shown any inclination to negotiate.
In his latest radio address, Obama specifically referred to the term ?responsibility? to save Libyan lives, which was a nod to the UN-approved but heavily contested concept of responsibility to protect (?R2P?). Invoking humanitarian motives for raiding Libya risks attracting myriad claims for foreign help from opposition groups waging do-or-die struggles against dictatorships across the Middle East. Moreover, there has been no humanitarian intervention in Ivory Coast, where the authoritarian ruler, Laurent Gbagbo, has carried out extreme acts of violence against innocent civilians demanding his ouster after he contested and lost free elections.
Defenders of inconsistency in application of humanitarian intervention claim that the US or its European allies cannot rationally get involved everywhere, but should do so wherever possible to save at least some lives. Why is intervening in Libya ?possible? while it is not so in Ivory Coast, Zimbabwe, Burma or North Korea? Oil, European interests in the Mediterranean, Qaddafi?s isolation in the Arab League by virtue of his mercurial fits, and revolutionary sympathy for anti-Qaddafi rebels from newly liberated neighbours?Tunisia and Egypt?render Libya ripe for the oxymoronic ?humanitarian bombing?.
Time is both Qaddafi?s best ally and foe. The longer he holds out and the more Western air strikes harm innocent civilians, he hopes to emerge as a heroic pan-Arab resistance figure. But with his secret stash of tens of billions of dollars running out and access to Libya?s oil wealth blocked, how long will this unpredictable ?King of Kings? last? Obama might be tempted to prolong the air strikes with an eye on Qaddafi?s vulnerability to a coming resource crunch, but delays may be unpalatable to the American people.
The easiest exit strategy could come via a palace coup within Qaddafi?s closest circle and his elimination by intrigue. Barring that or a missile strike that obliterates Qaddafi and his reprobate sons, Odyssey Dawn may not see dusk anytime soon.
The author is Vice-Dean of the Jindal School of International Affairs