In the midst of numerous scams and alleged mishandling of allies, the Congress, despite a thumping start to UPA-II, seems to have lost the plot. Even the Rahul factor failed to work in the recent Bihar elections. What?s clearly needed is a new forward plan

This is undoubtedly the winter of discontent for the Congress, as the set pieces shoring up its stability as the ruling political force seem to be crossing all over the chess board. From Parliament to the Prime Minister?s Office (PMO) to major states across the country, the Congress appears to be in retreat, or at least with its back to the wall, fighting to keep its flock together in the face of a suddenly changed state of play.

This is a hugely different scenario from that of May 2009, when the UPA was voted back for a second term with a new improved majority. So, what happened between then and now, just a year-and-a-half down the line?

Political analyst Mahesh Rangarajan feels the UPA government, and especially the Congress, seems to have ‘lost the plot’.

?The first term of the UPA had a story, it had the national rural employment guarantee programme, the loan waiver, higher minimum support prices (MSP) for farmers and on the strategic affairs front it had the nuclear deal,? he said. ?Now it can’t make up its mind on something like the food security bill. Stuck between the so-called reformers and welfare supporters, the government appears confused,? he says.

Politically, the Congress, which heads the UPA, faced a rout in Bihar, despite its good showing in Uttar Pradesh in the 2009 elections. ?Their performance was worse than in the immediate aftermath of the Emergency. But the real story is in Andhra Pradesh, where the party has lost its nerve and is being pulled in different directions and is hopelessly handling Telengana,? he says. ?Andhra Pradesh forms the backbone of its government at the Centre and is a huge state to lose control of,? he adds.

The BJP, on its part, says that six years of UPA rule made it ‘arrogant’, ultimately diluting the authority of the Congress. ?There has been a serious dilution of the Congress’ authority in the UPA-II tenure, mostly because of its arrogance in dealing with its allies,? says leader of the opposition in the Lok Sabha, Sushma Swaraj. She says the Congress has been more than unkind in dealing with allies, heaping on Sharad Pawar the blame for price rise, Mamata Banerjee for sympathising with Maoists, and corruption being laid solely at the DMK’s door. ?Which is why when the Congress and the Prime Minister find themselves in trouble, the allies are not defending them whole hog,? says Swaraj. The biggest blow, however, according to Swaraj, has been the Bihar elections, ?where the Congress appeared determined to go it alone and met its hubris?.

Swaraj’s vehement viewpoint is hotly denied by the Congress, which feels that the party and the government it heads is only going through a rough patch, and that this, too, would pass. ?The Congress is a huge organisation and has proven resilience for over a hundred years. These are just phases,? says law minister M Veerappa Moily. ?Wherever there have been issues of corruption, the Congress has taken action first on itself before pointing fingers elsewhere,? he adds.

Party spokesperson Manish Tewari, whose every utterance is now being scrutinised as a ground for defamatory action by the BJP, feels that the opposition is over stating the case. ?Can a joint parliamentary probe replace a probe into corruption by the highest court of the land?? he asks.

Rangarajan finds the lack of a forward plan by the Congress the most worrying thing by far. ?The only programme they have for now in UPA-II is the Rahul Gandhi factor and a possible revival of the Youth Congress, which hasn’t happened in the two states where elections were held for it,? he says. The second UPA and the Congress are a tired looking act, according to him.

In the shifting sands of Indian politics, the going appears treacherous.