Edible oils imports may reach 58 lakh tonne for oil season 2006-07, about 6 lakh tonne lower than previous estimate of 64 lakh tonne, as a result of high prices of edible oils, according to Dorab Mistry, director, Godrej International Ltd, London.
India?s actual import was 54 lakh tonne in season 2005-06. The country?s total edible oil demand may increase to 125 lakh tonne for season 2006-07 from actual 122.80 lakh tonne for 2005-06 while total supply is estimated at 67.75 lakh tonne for 2006-07 mainly through domestic production, he said.
Mistry presented a paper on ?Palm Oil Price Outlook 2007-08 with special reference to India? at SIOOC 2007 Conference held in Singapore. ?My earlier estimate was for imports of as much as 64 lakh tonne while this has now been scaled down to 58 lakh tonne. Of the 6 lakh tonne lost, about 4.25 lakh tonne will be at the cost of palm oil imports. Per capita consumption has remained stagnant and we have lost almost half a million tonnes in consumption mainly due to high prices,? Mistry said. This year high prices have been cushioned to a large extent by reductions in import duties. Despite that relief, higher prices as compared with the previous year had rationed demand to the extent of half a million tonne, he said.
?I believe this is a very significant development and will be seen in many more price sensitive markets such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, parts of China and North Africa.
In addition to consumption being cut, stocks and pipelines will also be reduced. I believe many price analysts have not yet taken this factor on board,? he said.