It was meant to be a stinging rebuke to Pakistan?s President Pervez Musharraf. It was, too, because the February 18 polls to elect the country?s new parliament and provincial assemblies were taken by the electorate as a referendum on his eight years of absolute rule. The elections almost wiped out the president?s party, the PML(Q). Though no single party has won an absolute majority in parliament, the results make it clear that some of Musharraf?s most bitter critics in the opposition could be part of a new government that will be formed in Islamabad.
Yet, in a way, the only clear winner is Musharraf himself, sans rigging too?at least in comparison with the 2002 elections. As Yogi Berra once said, ?That is d?j? vu all over again.? But this time, democracy can also emerge as a winner, if the electoral ripples can be managed delicately as they head for the coast.
The ?mother of all elections?, as Musharraf had characterised it, it didn?t turn out to be, though. The turnout was predictably low. To ring in Pakistan?s latest tryst with electoral democracy, the star cast had included an election commission, judiciary and press all suitably tamed. A pall of gloom had enveloped the election campaign all through since December end, given suicide bombings aimed at political leaders, notably Benazir Bhutto. Nonetheless, the polling was peaceful, and it was not a rigged affair either. The results show that the PPP, now under the leadership of Asif Ali Zardari, and the PML(N), led by former PM Nawaz Sharif, appeared to have won enough seats to command a majority in parliament. The pro-Musharraf PML(Q) was trailing a distant third after a rout in Punjab, and religious parties that had not boycotted the polls were virtually decimated in the Frontier province, an area bordering the theatre of action in America?s ?war against terror?.
Prior to the elections, Pakistan?s political circles were agog with talk of ?impeaching? Musharraf, with unsubtle hints to the military establishment to play along and dump the leader who had shed his ?second skin? (army fatigues) for a civilian role in determining the country?s future. But the PPP and PML(N), the two big opposition parties, have failed to achieve a two-thirds majority in parliament needed to stage such a coup.
In other words, Musharraf?s place is secure. The military, relatively speaking, remains firmly behind him.
The outcome is positive for Musharraf for another reason. It?s the forces of political moderation that have won, even at the expense of the so-called ?King?s party?. Since 2002, Musharraf has had to work with parties not known for a modernist worldview. In a decision to his own regret, Musharraf co-opted them for passage of the 17th Amendment that gave constitutional cover to the military coup of 1999 and the president?s arbitrary powers to hire and fire elected governments.
An election free of malpractices has also restored a measure of legitimacy to the presidency, which had seen an erosion of its moral authority. But will a coalition of opposition formations hold together for long? Will Musharraf be able to strike a modus vivendi with the elected government? Or will the president, the dominant player in the governance troika, allow a dilution of some of his powers? And, will the army be content to watch from its barracks? These are zillion-dollar questions now.
Despite all his foibles and arbitrary actions, Musharraf?s voice of moderation seems to have come good. It is said in Pakistan that the only firm voice against extremism is the general?s own, even if it is his sense of security?perhaps more than liberal outlook?that gives it its effective command.
All said, the elections have swung the balance of probability in Pakistan in favour of positive breakthroughs. If the momentum towards political reconciliation and stable institutions continues, a democratic transformation may follow. Musharraf?s leadership, shorn of critics? cynicism, would be crucial. Enlightened moderation need not be as elusive as it has often seemed.