Nobody quite knows how many jobs have been lost in this meltdown in our country. Government admits that the actual number of job losses may be much higher than the estimated figure of five lakh?labour minister Oscar Fernandes informed Parliament that five lakh people had lost their jobs during the four- month period ending December 2008. The worst affected sectors are exports, textiles, automobile and information technology. Average earnings have also come down by 3.45 per cent as a direct impact of the economic downturn.
According to K Pandia Rajan, managing director, Ma Foi Management Consultants Limited, there was a lot of positive feeling in the job market till October last year. When the slow down actually started, when it will end, nobody seems to know, he says. Ma Foi is one of India?s largest HR service provider and staffing company with a Rs 700 crore plus turnover. ? There is a a slowdown and deceleration. But there are also a lot of alarmist stories going around,? says Rajan. According to the Ma Foi Employment Survey, 2008, post the meltdown, close to 7.9 lakh jobs were created in the organised sector. However there was a dip of 30 to 31 percent dip in additional job creation.
The Ma Foi survey takes a sample of 1000 companies over 22 sectors. The survey does not include the agricultural sector. The survey shows that 2006 and 2007 were bumper years for jobs in India. Given the employment portfolio in the country, one percent dip in the GDP leads to a loss of one lakh jobs. In the unorganised sector one can make only educated guesses .From the peak figures of ten lakh jobs a year in the organised sector, 2009 will possibly see creation of only 6 to 6.7 lakh jobs. ?There is not a total shrinkage of jobs, but definitely a deceleration,? says Rajan. The overseas organised job market which saw semi skilled and unskilled labour finding jobs abroad, the deceleration started in the middle of last year. In 2007, 5.6 lakh workers went overseas. This year it is back to Bharat for a large number. The steep fall in oil and gas industries, the slow down in the construction sector have all had their impact. The numbers are not likely to cross 3 lakhs in the current year. Straightening out the mechanism of people going overseas, and doing away with intermediaries who charge hefty fees and end up cheating potential immigrant labour will have a positive impact on job creation in this area.
The unorganised sector consists of casual labourers and their figures are either not available or not accurate. The area of employment Rajan feels optimistic about is flexi staffing. ?This sector will not shrink, but will grow 10 to 15 percent,? he says. This segment, which employs about 4.5 lakh people will probably see an increase of at least 50,000 jobs. Rajan feels that government can do a lot more in this sector. Changes in the Emigration Act, easier norms for emigration clearance can boost labour movement a great deal. Relooking at the contract labour act will also give a boost to this domain. As Rajan points out, it is impossible for a placement company to take an all India contract and put skilled labour in different states. The licensing procedures and the corruption just stifle any labour movement.
Rajan also rues the fact that the government?s initiative setting up a Skill Development Corporation for the youth of the country is a non starter. Initially it was said that the government would spend Rs 15,000 crore on this, then it was whittled down to Rs 1,000 crore. But the entire idea of skill development is stuck in total paralysis. Hardly Rs 10 crore has been spent towards helping young people to develop employable skills. There are about 350 skill sets which require training and accreditation. Training and accreditation immediately sharpens employment possibilities.
There are some silver linings in the employment scene. General insurance, education and health sectors are still hiring. Governments, both central and state, are clearing up backlogs in their departments. For example Tamil Nadu has been hiring teachers and police personnel at a brisk pace in the last four to five months. In spite of these attempts, everybody is waiting for the elections to be over to find some answers.
-sushila.ravindranath@expressindia.com