It?s pouring in almost all parts of the country, barring the eastern states. The four-month southwest monsoon season in 2010 has been one of the best in recent times, and more importantly the spread, distribution and timeliness has been rather even. The Indian Meteorological Department?s (IMD) latest figures show that between June 1 and September 1, India had received 719.9 mm of rainfall, which is just 1% below the normal, with the big thrust coming in August, when rainfall was around 6% more than normal across the country.
The big black spot in this has been the eastern states of West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa and Assam, where near-absence of rainfall until late August has ruined the standing crop (infact, agriculture ministry data shows that until September 1, in Bihar, even though area under paddy is almost 2.16% more than 2009, the crop condition is poor).
But, above-normal rainfall in other regions has had its positive impact on agriculture and, in all probability, will aid sowing during the coming rabi season as well. Water in 81 major reservoirs across the country monitored by the central water commission is around 103.15 billion cubic metres as on September 9, which is almost 132% of last year?s storage in the same period and even 111% of last 10 years? average storage in these reservoirs. Apart from providing ready and adequate supply for the power projects attached to these reservoirs, good storage levels will also ensure that water is available in plenty in the canals that feed farmlands during the coming rabi season.
The good monsoon played its part in improving acreage of all major kharif crops. Data from the farm ministry shows that until September 3, total kharif crops have been sown in around 966.40 lakh hectares across India, which is around 10% more than the acreage achieved in 2009. Among the major kharif crops, acreage of paddy has grown to around 318.75 lakh hectares, almost 20% more than 2009, that of pulses is up by around 19.2% in 2010 as compared to last year, oilseed area is around 5.80% more than last year. Acreage of sugarcane, cotton and even jute is more in 2010 than last year.
But, that is only one part of the story. Year-on-year, the picture might look impressive, but it seems slightly offtrack when seen in light of the fact that 2009 was one of the worst drought years. Take the case of paddy. Acreage this year is almost 27% less than in 2008 and in case of pulses the area sown is around 10.53% less than 2008.
Overall, in all kharif crops, acreage in 2010 is almost 31% less than 2008. Mind it, the real comparison should be between two normal monsoon years and not with a drought year. Of course, in case of paddy this logic should not apply as 2008 was not a drought year in eastern India (one of the big paddy growing regions), while 2009 and 2010 are. Total rainfall in 2008 was around 2 below normal (this also included winter rains, not part of the 2010 numbers until now). This is not to suggest that kharif farm production this year will fall short of targets or we will have shortage of any kind (India has grain stocks in excess of 50 million tonnes). But, it is important for the government to step up its vigil. In 2002-03, when acreage fell by 8.2% in comparison to the previous year, production dropped by 23% as yields plummeted by 16.1% (see table). In 2004-05, similarly, acreage dropped by 1.5%, pulling down production by 6.09% as yields fell by 4.4%.
?sanjeeb.mukherjee@expressindia.com