One year ago, the people of India gave the Congress and UPA a more decisive mandate to govern than they had done in 2004. For all its flaws in government, the Congress-led UPA-1 had clearly left a positive impression on the mind of the Indian voter. The success of UPA-1 was undoubtedly fuelled by fortuitous circumstances?an economic boom, buoyant revenues that helped finance ambitious social spending, relatively peaceful times (until 26/11), and the support of the Left parties, who served as the convenient fall guys when things got stuck.
UPA-2, on the other hand, inherited a greater burden of expectation. And it would also have to govern in less fortuitous circumstances?the economic boom had turned to bust (or at best resilience), the Maoist menace, once a minor irritant, had now become a major security threat, the shadow of 26/11 loomed in the background and there was at least one less excuse for policy inaction with the departure of the Left parties from a position of influence.
For better or for worse, the fate of political parties and the governments they lead depends on how they are perceived by the people at large.
As UPA-2 completes one year in office, the Congress party, in particular, has some real reasons to be concerned, because the most common perceptions of this government are no longer positive.
The first of these is a perception of drift. Nowhere is this more evident than in the realm of economic policymaking. The UPA governments, both 1 and 2, can justifiably take some credit for ensuring the resilience of the Indian economy through the worst global economic crisis in seven decades. But it is increasingly evident that the UPA has interpreted that resilience as a licence for a ?do-nothing? status quo policy approach.
The reality is that the global economy isn?t likely to return to the heady boom days of 2003-07 anytime soon?the crisis is still unravelling (in Europe), not wrapping up. India can, however, achieve 9% growth and more irrespective of what happens elsewhere but not without significant domestic reform efforts?in financial markets (banking, insurance), in labour laws, in product markets (FDI in retail, for example) and in infrastructure. Of course, the government no longer has the Left to blame. It can?t even present the excuse of a lack of a clear majority in Parliament. On at least two occasions in the past few months, the government has shown that it can cobble together the numbers when it is determined to do so?think Women?s Reservation Bill and the cut motions on the Budget.
Perhaps even more worrying for the UPA, than the perception of drift, is the perception of disarray within the government on key policy matters: there have been numerous instances of ministers acting at cross purposes, and senior Congress party leaders undermining their own ministers. Perhaps the biggest casualty of this disarray and infighting has been the battle against the Maoists. If Monday?s attack on a bus in Dantewada, which killed some 50 service personnel and civilians, the latest in a series of high profile attacks, is any indicator, the Indian state isn?t winning the battle against the Maoists.
The Union home minister, P Chidambaram, arguably the most competent politician to occupy that office in many years, has the right ideas about taking on the Maoists but just doesn?t seem to have enough support from within his own government and party. Digvijay Singh may have been the most outspoken critic of the home minister, but he?s hardly the only one. And the critics are on the wrong track if they believe that this is a battle that can be fought without an armed response from the Indian state. A government that is perceived to be ?soft? on matters of security doesn?t go down well with the electorate. Unless all concerned get behind Chidambaram to thwart the regularity and audacity of Maoist attacks, the government will be perceived as divided and weak.
The other unfortunate perception surrounding UPA-2 is one of taint. UPA-1 had steered clear of any major scandal. UPA-2 has had to contend with two in its first year. The murky IPL saga left its mark on the government mostly courtesy Shashi Tharoor, but also Sharad Pawar and Praful Patel. In the end, even if no wrongdoing is proved in a court of law, there was enough muck thrown up to disgust public opinion. As if the IPL wasn?t enough, the continued cloud around telecom minister A Raja just gets thicker. And nobody, not even the Prime Minister, seems able to take action against the errant minister.
The problem for the government is that all the perceptions of taint, disarray and drift have a nasty tendency to accumulate slowly but steadily. It would be foolhardy for the UPA to bank on the perception of weak Opposition as a means to retain power four years from now?the NDA, after all, made that mistake in 2004. The PM, and Congress president, need to urgently step in to arrest the slide.
dhiraj.nayyar@expressindia.com