Presidential elections in India have largely been a tame affair, with the ruling party indicating its support for a nominee who gets elected without voting having to take place. This is largely done through a consensual approach. However, the growing uncertainty of coalition politics is making Presidential elections seem like an IPL contest, in which things change by the minute. So when Mulayam Singh Yadav and Mamata Banerjee named their shortlist for India?s next President, it set off a chain of political reactions which, some say, could even lead to premature general elections!
Theoretically, the Congress party?s official candidate Pranab Mukherjee may have to withdraw if Mulayam and Mamata insist on one of the three candidates they have named?APJ Abdul Kalam, Manmohan Singh and Somnath Chatterjee. Without Mulayam and Mamata, the UPA falls short of the 50% of votes needed in the electoral college.
Manmohan has been named simply to embarrass and confuse the Congress party. Of course, theoretically, if the Congress accepts Manmohan?s name for the President?s post, then a consensus is easily built, with Mulayam and Mamata supporting the move. So, as of now, of all the candidates whose names have been thrown up by various parties, Manmohan is the only one who is sure of getting over 50% votes in the electoral college in the event of a poll.
There are many conspiracy theories doing the rounds as to why Manmohan?s name might have cropped up at this stage. One version is that Sonia Gandhi, while indicating Pranab as her first choice to Mamata, may have had some inkling that Mulayam and Mamata would name Manmohan as one of their candidates. Therefore, according to this version, Mulayam and Mamata were acting in concert with Sonia. This theory got a setback when the Congress party officially said it could not move Manmohan as President. There was some talk earlier that Manmohan might get pushed up as President so that a truly political person like Pranab who understands the Congress DNA could take over as Prime Minister in the run-up to the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. It is widely accepted within the top Congress leadership that the government badly needs political management in day-to-day affairs and that Manmohan doesn?t have the wherewithal to deal with it. He is much better as a peacetime (politically speaking) Prime Minister.
However, many rightly viewed the theory of Sonia, Mulayam and Mamata acting in concert with a lot of scepticism. This set of political observers believe politics is truly on the boil now and no political party or leader who has some advantage would give the Congress party any quarter at this stage. According to this school, politics is a ruthless game and there is no reason why Mulayam and Mamata should make things easy for Sonia and the Congress party, so as to allow a smooth passage for Pranab to take charge as President.
As per this version, Mulayam is playing a bigger game of spreading confusion in the Congress ranks, weakening the authority of the Congress President, so that a realignment of political forces takes place and leads to the formation of a loose non-Congress, non-BJP federal front that acts as a pressure group in the run-up to the general elections in 2014 or even in 2013. So the move by Mamata and Mulayam, who are allies and supporters of the UPA, can also be seen as Congress being put on notice. This conspiracy theory would also have us believe that while putting the Congress on notice, Mulayam and Mamata may have the comfort of knowing that with their support Abdul Kalam could also get a clean majority, if all the erstwhile NDA constituents come out in his support. So Mulayam and Mamata are indeed running with the hare and hunting with the hounds in this present instance.
I also suspect the big business community, which too has some influence over such events, wants change at the Prime Minister?s office, if only to get a sense of renewal. Big business, therefore, wouldn?t mind Manmohan moved up as President.
Of course, the next two weeks will make it clear as to which of the two conspiracy theories?Mulayam-Mamata acting in concert with Sonia or the duo playing some larger, disruptive federal front game?has more weight.
It is, however, very clear that the Congress leadership is more lacking in confidence today than at any time in the past two decades. That it is pulling in various directions and floundering again and again is there for all to see. The allies and supporters of the Congress have detected this weakness in the ruling formation and are turning the knife into the government at every opportunity. It is logical that whenever the Congress leaves a leadership vacuum, some loose third-front combination, even if short-lived, takes birth. This amoebic process is inevitable.
In the current political dynamic, I am inclined to believe that the Congress will be kept on tenterhooks by its own allies and supporters for the remaining tenure of this Lok Sabha. The UPA can create some impression of renewal in governance by completely reordering the Cabinet after either Manmohan or Pranab is moved to the Rashtrapati Bhavan. The best-case scenario for the UPA is to do a decent holding operation till the general elections (whenever they are held), have minimum doable reforms, keep inflation in check and have some growth impulses back.
mk.venu@expressindia.com