The Congress party?s plenary in Delhi was overshadowed to a large extent by the spectre of large-scale graft in the UPA government; it is not, however, the biggest political challenge being faced by the Grand Old Party (GOP). That happens to, undoubtedly, be the southern state of Andhra Pradesh. It is the backbone of the current UPA government at the Centre, the Congress has 33 MPs from the state, but the death of YS Rajasekhara Reddy has unleashed demons that the central party is quite unable to contain.
Last week alone, former chief minister N Chandrababu Naidu sat on a high-profile hunger strike to protest against the alleged lack of compensation for farmers hit by floods. It was an ironic role reversal for him from his days as the CEO of Cyberabad, but even more so for the Congress that had ridden to power in 2004 on the back of a similar padyatra by YS Rajasekhara Reddy. The aam aadmi shoe is quite literally on the other foot.
If this wasn?t damaging enough, the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), in the run-up to the Srikrishna Commission report on Telangana to be submitted on December 31, held a massive show of strength at Warangal. The TRS is on a build-up for the big showdown at the end of the month if there is an adverse finding in the Srikrishna report. The Congress itself is split on the question of Telangana, with the party, whether by accident or design, trying to occupy both sides of the argument. The party may be convinced that it is advantageous to play both sides but so far they have managed to convince no one else of this logic.
What has actually happened in the interim is that the issue, almost buried after YSR?s second victory in Andhra Pradesh in 2009, has been given a fresh lease of life, and a timeline that more or less means troubled times ahead. The party, therefore, is split not just between pro- and anti-YSR camps but also on Telangana and Vishal Andhra planks. The Congress, which revels in being all things to all people, may have over-reached on this issue.
By far, the biggest thorn in the Congress?s side is the rebel son of YSR, Jaganmohan Reddy. After his exit from the Congress, he has been quite successful in playing the agent provocateur. The rebellion in the newly sworn-in Cabinet of chief minister Kiran Reddy, the daily defections by several Congress leaders to Jaganmohan Reddy?s still-to-be-announced party?the YSR Congress?and his emotionally charged politics, based on perceived wrongs against him by the Congress, makes for an explosive cocktail.
Things have come to such a pass that it has become a betting game in the Andhra Pradesh assembly as to just how long Kiran Reddy will manage to hold on to power.
What should really worry the Congress are the lessons that the BJP learnt after it was voted out of power in 2004. The actual difference in the Congress and BJP seats in the Lok Sabha was just five. The BJP got 137 seats while the Congress bagged 141. But what made the critical difference in who gets to form the government was the state of the respective allies of the these two national parties.
In Andhra Pradesh, N Chandrababu Naidu?an ally of the BJP-led NDA?was decimated at the hustings. While in Tamil Nadu, the DMK, a former ally of the NDA, delivered critical numbers to the Congress as part of a new alliance on the eve of elections.
In 2010, the DMK has gone into political shock over the 2G spectrum scam and Andhra Pradesh is floundering out of Congress?s hands. In the year of the credibility free fall, this lesson from history is valuable indeed. The Congress should not rely too hard on the BJP?s lack of leadership, as there is never a vacuum at the top. This southern discomfort will cost the Congress, and cost it big.
nistula.hebbar@expressindia.com