Indian cities by the year 2030 could have 590 million urban dwellers, which will constitute 40% of India?s population, suggests McKinsey Global Institute (MGI). To meet this urban demand, India will have to build between 700 million and 900 million square metres of residential and commercial space a year, highlights the report titled India?s urban awakening: Building inclusive cities, sustaining economic growth.
By 2030, India will have 68 cities with populations of more than 1 million, 13 cities with more than 4 million people, and 6 megacities with populations of 10 million or more, at least two of which (Mumbai and Delhi) will be among the five largest cities in the world by 2030.
The nation will have five large states?Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Punjab with more of their population living in cities. ?India has the potential to unlock many new growth markets in its cities, many of them not traditionally associated with India, including consumer goods, infrastructure, transportation, health care, education, and recreation,? says Richard Dobbs, director of the MGI, based in Seoul.
The report finds that Indian cities could generate 70% of net new jobs created by 2030, produce around 70% of Indian GDP, and drive a near fourfold increase in per capita income across the nation. ?Cities will be central to inclusive growth. Cities will create 70% of all net new jobs, contribute 85% of the taxes that are vital for India?s developmental funding, and are perhaps the most cost-effective vehicle to deliver basic services such as water and sanitation to its citizens?, emphasizes Shirish Sankhe, Director, McKinsey & Company. ?Further, about 200 million people who live in rural areas close to cities will benefit because of the improved access to jobs, markets, and the urban infrastructure,? he added.
In terms of both population and GDP, many Indian cities will become larger than many countries today. For instance, Mumbai Metropolitan Region?s GDP is projected to reach 12 trillion rupees ($265 billion) by 2030, larger than the GDP today of countries, such as Portugal, Colombia, and Malaysia.
In transportation, India needs to build 350 to 400 kilometers of metros and subways every year, more than 20 times it has achieved in the past decade. In addition, between 19,000 and 25,000 kilometers of road lanes would need to be built every year (including lanes for bus-based rapid transit systems), nearly equal to the road lanes constructed over the past decade. India?s current urban spending is very low by international comparison.