After missing the mark in predicting the revenue guidance to be put up by Infosys for 2013-14, analysts have lowered their financial estimates for the IT major. Brokerages, including Morgan Stanley, Citi and Edelweiss, have revised down their assumptions of FY14 topline growth and earnings on the back of muted March quarter performance and the company?s wary outlook for the fiscal.
On Friday, the IT bellwether shocked the Street by posting lower-than-expected revenues and operating margins for the three months to March 2013. The bigger letdown, however, was the net sales outlook shared by the company, which, at an estimated growth of 6-10%, missed analyst estimates ? pegged for a growth of 10-13% ? by a significant extent.
The stock fell over 21% to R2,296.65 on Friday, reflecting its biggest single-day fall in nearly 10 years. On Monday, it bounced back 1.8%, or R42.4, to R2,339.05.
Citigroup cut its FY14 and FY15 rupee revenue outlook for Infosys by nearly 2% and 5%, respectively, and reduced their earning per share (EPS) guess by 3-9%. It lowered its target price by 22% to R2,695 for factoring in the high quarterly volatility that may result in lower multiples for the stock in historical as well as sectoral contexts.
Domestic brokerage Edelweiss lowered dollar revenue and EPS estimates of Infosys for FY14 and FY15 by 3% and 6.6-7%,
respectively. While Morgan Stanley lowered its FY14 rupee revenue assessments for Infosys by 9%, its target price revision of 3.7% to R2,890 was comparatively lenient.
The tolerance emerged from the brokerage?s confidence on Infosys? business model and its belief that concerns over pricing, margin and rising costs may have been overdone.
Reflecting the market pessimism, as many as 12 brokerages lowered their target price of Infosys with BNP Paribas, Creidt Suisse, and JM Financial reducing their targets by more than 20%.
However, unlike April 2012 when Infosys started faltering on its quarterly estimates by huge divergence, the analysts have been optimistic of the company?s future.
Back then, a slew of downgrades from leading brokerages, including Deutsche, CLSA and Macquarie, had dragged the stock to a six-month low.
?The recent correction has turned the stock cheap and analysts are still not ready to let go of their recently gained confidence on Infosys management, which has acknowledged commitment towards growth over pricing,? said an analyst.
As on Monday, five domestic brokerages, including Antique, Emkay and Dolat Capital, reduced their rating on the stock.