Though assembly elections are generally guided by regional considerations, one can still read some overarching patterns from the just concluded polls which appear to transcend local factors. India?s impressive economic growth story has unleashed forces that our political class is still trying to fathom. In the process, politicians are making costly mistakes along the way. The stunning reversals in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu in some ways present two fascinating aspects of how the political class fails to read the young, aspirational voting population.
The Left Front government in West Bengal suffered because it was perhaps too late in graduating West Bengal from a predominantly agriculture economy to a robust industrial existence, which should have been a natural transition even from a historical Marxist perspective. It failed to do so in 34 years that it was in power.
In contrast, the DMK government in Tamil Nadu was very industry friendly and took care to see that the materialist aspirations of the people were fully catered to. But the DMK too got severely punished because it keeled over to the other extreme of promoting naked crony capitalism, whether by its minister A Raja at the Centre or by Karunanidhi?s larger clan in Tamil Nadu. The voters were so angry with the DMK running the state like its own piece of real estate that Karunanidhi suffered the most humiliating defeat. The DMK?s tally is even lower than that of actor Vijaykanth?s fledgling outfit in Tamil Nadu.
The broader theme which politicians may want to take note of is voters have badly punished both lack of industrial development?West Bengal, as well as too much crony capitalism?Tamil Nadu.
There appears to be a subtle lesson here for the ruling UPA, which will face the general elections in 2014. Of course, there is also the all important elections to the legislative assembly in Uttar Pradesh that will test the Mayawati government on the same yardstick. Mayawati is faring quite well on the development index but is vulnerable in the context of cronyism.
West Bengal and Tamil Nadu results clearly tell us that governments will have to deliver development without succumbing to the forces of cronyism. Both these aspects are equally critical. Failure on either score will anger an increasingly aspirational voter. This will be the Litmus test for the Congress party in the next three years. The Congress must therefore study the West Bengal and Tamil Nadu verdicts very closely.
Both the Left Front in West Bengal and the DMK in Tamil Nadu read the tea leaves wrong. The housing minister of West Bengal, Gautam Deb, told some journalists just before the concluding phase of the state elections that the Marxists managed to stay in power for 34 years because the heightened political consciousness of the Bengalis made them immune to material needs. This was virtually turning Karl Marx on his head, whose entire treatise is based on the premise that materialism is the strongest social force in history!
The DMK, on the other hand, was overconfident that it had virtually catered to all the material needs of its people, by hook or by crook. That boomeranged as well. And how badly.
The Congress must internalise the sub-texts of these two verdicts. The Congress has wasted over two years not getting enough clarity on either of the two aspects discussed above. The Congress is not clear as to what sort of capitalist development model it wants. Senior Cabinet ministers are still debating whether India should produce 1 lakh MW of electricity in the 12th Plan! If so, will it be consistent with our environmental goals and will it meet our commitments in regard to climate change mitigation made at Cancun?
On attacking crony capitalism, the Congress-led UPA had initially shown no conviction but has made amends in recent months with the arrest of ministers, businessmen and bureaucrats in connection with various scams.
The UPA is on the right track insofar as tackling cronyism goes. But the flip side of this is that the bureaucracy is not taking decisions easily. There has to be conviction on both counts?driving development and discouraging cronyism. One without the other will not work, as the recent polls have shown.
Trinamool Congress leader Mamata Banerjee will also have to shed her luddite image and deliver on development. This requires conviction about the need for rapid industrialisation. This writer met some village elders who had led the Singur protest against the Tata Nano project, and had steadfastly supported Mamata Banerjee. They now want some big project to come on the same spot where Tatas had put up an entire structure to run a car plant. Mamata will do well to bring some industrial enterprise in Singur to show her commitment to a new paradigm of development and employment.
Mamata Banerjee must also ensure a smooth passage of the amended Land Acquisition Amendment Bill, which would give farmers a much better deal in the event of their land being acquired for industrialisation. If Mamata fails to deliver on development, she is sure to suffer the same fate as the Left Front.
She won?t have the leeway?of 34 years in power?that the Marxists got. For another lesson from the assembly polls is that the younger electorate is getting angry and impatient more quickly now. There is far less emotional space given to erring politicians now.
mk.venu@expressindia.com