The Biden administration’s recent decision to remove Cuba from the US list of state sponsors of terrorism has ignited a political storm in Washington, as the incoming Trump administration is poised to reverse the move. This decision, made just days before President Biden’s term ends, was welcomed by some, but its longevity is now in question with a Republican-dominated government set to take over.

Biden’s Cuba Decision and Its Immediate Fallout

In one of his final acts as president, Joe Biden announced on January 14, 2025, that Cuba would be removed from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism. This decision came after Biden’s team concluded that there was “no credible evidence” that Cuba had been involved in supporting international terrorism in the past six months. The move was seen by some as a step towards healing diplomatic rifts that had widened under former President Donald Trump, who reinstated Cuba’s designation in 2021.

However, the timing of Biden’s announcement—just days before Trump’s second inauguration—has sparked intense debate. Many believe that the decision was a short-term gesture, one that may be quickly undone once the new administration takes office. Under the incoming leadership of President Trump, and with Marco Rubio set to assume the role of Secretary of State, the clock is ticking on how long this policy shift will last.

The Return of the Hardline Cuba Policy

Marco Rubio, a Cuban-American senator from Florida, has long been a fierce advocate of maintaining tough sanctions on Cuba, and he is expected to push for a swift reversal of Biden’s decision. Rubio’s family fled Cuba before Fidel Castro’s revolution in the 1950s, and his stance on Cuba has always been shaped by a desire to pressure the island’s communist regime. As Trump’s Secretary of State-designate, Rubio will have significant influence over U.S. foreign policy toward Cuba.

Rubio is set to appear before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee for his confirmation hearing soon, where he is likely to address his Cuban roots and reiterate his commitment to a hardline approach. His confirmation is almost certain, given the Republican control of the Senate, and once in office, he is expected to work closely with Trump to re-impose sanctions and potentially put Cuba back on the terrorism list.

“President Biden’s decision to remove Cuba from the list is a grave error,” Rubio has stated in previous remarks, underscoring his belief that Cuba’s actions in support of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and its continued harbouring of fugitives make it a dangerous player in the region.

A Shift in US-Cuba Relations Under Trump

With Trump’s administration about to take the reins once more, the momentum for a return to the hardline policies of his first term is gaining strength. As part of his broader Latin American strategy, Trump appointed Mauricio Claver-Carone, a vocal supporter of sanctions on Cuba, to the position of special envoy to Latin America. This signals that Cuba policy will once again be a focal point for the US government under the Trump administration.

Representative Mike Waltz, Trump’s pick for National Security Advisor, has already previewed the incoming administration’s stance. In an interview with Fox News, Waltz said, “Look, anything that they’re doing right now we can do back, and no one should be under any illusion in terms of a change in Cuba policy. We don’t like it, but again, if people are going free, then that’s what it is for now.”

This language suggests a hard reversal, with the incoming government looking to not just undo Biden’s actions, but possibly reintroduce even stricter measures against Cuba. The question now is how quickly Trump and Rubio will act once they are in power.

Cuban Response and Concerns Over Policy Reversals

In Cuba, the reaction to Biden’s decision has been cautious but positive. The Cuban Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement recognizing that the policy shift was limited in scope but still a move in the right direction. They expressed hope that it could be the beginning of a more respectful relationship with the U.S., one based on dialogue and non-interference in domestic affairs. However, the Cuban government also made it clear that the lifting of the terrorism designation did not mean an end to the broader economic blockade, which remains a source of significant hardship for the Cuban people.

“We will continue to face and condemn this economic warfare policy,” the Cuban statement said, underscoring the ongoing tension between the two countries. The government added that while it was open to a respectful relationship, the situation on the ground in Cuba would not improve unless the U.S. lifted the blockade entirely.

Congressional Reactions: A Divided Congress

While Rubio and his Republican allies are eager to reverse Biden’s move, others in Congress have been less enthusiastic. Texas Senator Ted Cruz, a fellow Republican and a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, was quick to condemn the Biden administration’s actions. Cruz called the decision “unacceptable” and promised to work with Trump to undo the move.

“Today’s decision is unacceptable on its merits,” Cruz said in a statement. “The terrorism advanced by the Cuban regime has not ceased. I will work with President Trump and my colleagues to immediately reverse and limit the damage from the decision.”

Republican representatives like Carlos Gimenez of Florida have also weighed in, predicting that Trump would act swiftly to reverse Biden’s policy. Gimenez was more blunt in his criticism, calling Biden’s actions “pathetic” and vowing that under Trump, Cuba would “not only put Cuba BACK on the list but PULVERIZE the regime once & for all!”

In contrast, some Democrats and international figures have called Biden’s decision a necessary step towards re-engaging with Cuba. Still, with the incoming administration set to take a much tougher stance, the future of US-Cuba relations remains uncertain.

What Lies Ahead for US-Cuba Relations?

As Trump and Rubio prepare to take office, it is clear that Cuba will remain a contentious issue in US foreign policy. The Biden administration’s brief attempt at detente may be swiftly undone by the new regime, signalling a return to the status quo of economic isolation and sanctions. Whether this will lead to any change in Cuba’s behaviour or exacerbate tensions between the two nations is yet to be seen.

As the world watches, all eyes are on Rubio’s confirmation hearing and Trump’s first foreign policy moves. The decisions made in these early days will set the tone for the next chapter in US-Cuba relations.