Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing a political storm even before his government has ratified the ceasefire deal with Hamas. The deal, brokered by the U.S., Qatar, and Egypt, promises a potential end to the 15-month conflict, but it has already sparked intense rebellion within Netanyahu’s fragile coalition. His far-right partners, whose support is crucial for his government’s survival, are threatening to withdraw unless the ceasefire deal is halted. This internal rebellion is placing Netanyahu in an increasingly precarious position, potentially endangering his leadership even before the deal is finalized.
Far-Right Defections Threaten Netanyahu’s Majority
The political rift in Netanyahu’s government emerged almost immediately after the ceasefire agreement was announced. Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israel’s national security minister and leader of the far-right Jewish Power party, declared that his party would resign from the coalition if the ceasefire deal is approved by the cabinet. Although his party controls just six seats in Israel’s 120-seat parliament, this defection would reduce Netanyahu’s parliamentary majority from a comfortable 68 to a razor-thin 62. Ben-Gvir has described the ceasefire as an Israeli “surrender” to Hamas, reflecting the deep ideological divide within Netanyahu’s coalition.
Bezalel Smotrich, the leader of the Religious Zionism party, which holds seven seats, has also threatened to withdraw from the coalition if Netanyahu progresses beyond the first phase of the ceasefire. This phase calls for a six-week truce, during which Hamas is expected to release 33 Israeli hostages in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, and Israeli forces will pull back from populated areas in Gaza. However, Smotrich and Ben-Gvir want the war to continue until Hamas is completely eradicated and Israeli military control is extended over Gaza. Their hardline stance is at odds with the ceasefire’s broader goals of de-escalation.
Netanyahu’s Fragile Political Survival
Netanyahu now faces an agonizing choice: maintain his political survival by appeasing his far-right allies and prolonging the war, or pursue the ceasefire and risk alienating these crucial partners. The situation is particularly difficult given that Netanyahu is already embroiled in a corruption trial, which has further complicated his position. As The New York Times reports, “Elections are about a story,” and Netanyahu’s political future may hinge on whether he can navigate the delicate balance between securing the ceasefire and preserving his coalition.
Analysts suggest that Netanyahu may ultimately prioritize a broader geopolitical opportunity over domestic political stability. Moshe Klughaft, a former Netanyahu strategic adviser, speculated that the prime minister may opt for a diplomatic resolution that could pave the way for improved relations with Saudi Arabia. Netanyahu could potentially use the ceasefire as a springboard to enhance Israel’s standing in the region, especially with U.S. support. “There’s more chance that Mr. Netanyahu will choose Saudi Arabia and elections over Smotrich and continuing the war,” Klughaft told The New York Times.
A Geopolitical Gamble: Netanyahu’s Ties to Trump and Saudi Arabia
Beyond the domestic political fallout, Netanyahu is also balancing his relationship with the incoming Trump administration. The US has strongly backed Israel throughout the conflict, and President-elect Donald Trump is eager to see an end to the war. For Netanyahu, aligning with Trump could offer more than just military support—it could create an opportunity for a broader peace deal, including formal diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia. If Netanyahu can broker such a deal, it would not only boost his legacy but also strengthen Israel’s position against regional adversaries like Iran.
As The New York Times highlights, the ceasefire deal Netanyahu is considering bears striking similarities to one proposed by President Biden earlier in 2024. This alignment with U.S. policy may provide Netanyahu with the international backing he needs to weather the storm of domestic dissent. However, the prime minister’s ability to navigate these competing pressures will be crucial. If Netanyahu chooses to pursue the ceasefire, it may offer a path toward greater diplomatic success but could also signal the unraveling of his political coalition.
A Narrow Path Forward
Netanyahu is currently stalling the cabinet vote to ratify the ceasefire, citing “last-minute disputes” with Hamas. However, this delay may only serve to intensify the political crisis. His far-right partners have made it clear that they will not tolerate a ceasefire, especially if it leads to a permanent truce. Ben-Gvir and Smotrich are increasingly vocal about their opposition to any deal that might signal a concession to Hamas.
For now, Netanyahu’s political survival may depend on how long he can manage the internal strife within his coalition. While he is unlikely to lose power immediately, the continued defection of far-right partners could leave him vulnerable in the longer term. The first phase of the ceasefire, which involves a temporary truce and the release of hostages, is expected to begin in the coming days. Even if Netanyahu’s government survives through this phase, the decision on the second phase—whether to make the truce permanent—could prove to be his undoing.
Netanyahu’s Political Calculus: Peace or Power?
At the heart of Netanyahu’s dilemma is the question of how to balance political power with national security objectives. Should Netanyahu move forward with the ceasefire, he risks losing the support of key allies in his government, potentially leading to a coalition collapse. However, refusing to support the ceasefire may isolate Netanyahu from the international community and push him further into the arms of his far-right partners, who are pushing for an unrelenting military campaign in Gaza.
Netanyahu’s future is increasingly uncertain. As The New York Times suggests, Netanyahu may opt to abandon the second phase of the ceasefire agreement if Hamas fails to comply or if he determines that continuing the war is the only way to preserve his coalition. However, there is also a growing recognition that Netanyahu may prioritize broader regional peace opportunities, such as the potential normalization of ties with Saudi Arabia, over the demands of his hardline partners.
For Netanyahu, the choices are stark, and the consequences profound. Whether he chooses to keep his far-right allies or embrace a potential diplomatic breakthrough will shape not only the future of the ceasefire but also the trajectory of his political career. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether Netanyahu can navigate this turbulent moment or if the pressure will prove too great to manage.