Bangladesh’s risky bet on Pakistan: Pawn in China’s strategic game?

The evolving dynamics between Bangladesh and Pakistan, bolstered by China’s covert influence in the region, are raising eyebrows in both diplomatic and military circles. While these developments might appear as strategic strides for Bangladesh, analysts warn that such alignments could entangle the country in a web of dependencies and geopolitical gamesmanship orchestrated by Beijing, with Pakistan as a willing pawn.

Deepening Bangladesh-Pakistan Ties

Recent moves by Bangladesh, including hosting high-level Pakistani military delegations in Rangpur near the Siliguri Corridor and announcing the resumption of direct flights with Pakistan, signal a warming of relations between the two nations. However, these developments come with significant baggage.

Bangladesh’s proximity to Pakistan’s military establishment, infamous for its role in the 1971 Liberation War atrocities, risks alienating domestic constituencies that still carry the scars of that conflict. Furthermore, Pakistan’s history of political instability and reliance on China makes it a questionable ally for a country like Bangladesh, which has worked hard to establish itself as a regional economic success story.

Pakistan: A Pawn in China’s Playbook

Observers argue that Pakistan’s renewed overtures to Bangladesh are part of a larger strategy influenced by China. Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has already tied Pakistan into a web of debt through projects like Gwadar Port and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Now, through Pakistan, China seems to be extending its reach into Bangladesh, offering promises of infrastructure, trade, and defence collaborations.

The upcoming Aman-25 multinational naval exercise, scheduled for February in Karachi, adds a new dimension to this alignment. Bangladesh’s decision to send a major naval warship to this exercise, for the first time in over a decade, highlights its growing defence cooperation with Pakistan. The exercise, which includes China’s active participation, demonstrates how Beijing is leveraging Pakistan to integrate other regional players into its strategic framework.

While Aman-25 is positioned as a platform for promoting maritime security, it also provides China a potential opportunity to expand its strategic influence. Pakistan, already reliant on China for military and economic support, is serving as a facilitator for Beijing’s ambitions. By aligning with Pakistan in such forums, Bangladesh risks becoming entangled in this dynamic.

China’s Expanding Influence in South Asia

China’s growing footprint in South Asia is unmistakable. In Bangladesh, projects like the Padma Bridge and Payra Port showcase Beijing’s ability to offer quick financial solutions, often at high long-term costs. Its participation in Aman-25 reflects a broader strategy to embed itself into regional security architectures, using Pakistan as a gateway.

By fostering a Bangladesh-Pakistan-China axis, Beijing appears to be trying to encircle India, creating a network of influence that undermines regional sovereignty. While this may seem like a win-win for smaller nations in the short term, the long-term consequences could be detrimental to their independence and economic stability. Furthermore antagonising a resident power like New Delhi is detrimental to the national health of these smaller countries making power moves with only short term gains.

Bangladesh’s Risk of Losing Strategic Autonomy

For Bangladesh, aligning with Pakistan and China comes with significant risks. Historically, Bangladesh has prided itself on balancing regional powers while maintaining its independence. However, growing ties with Pakistan—an ally heavily influenced by Beijing—could erode this balance.

Participation in forums like Aman-25 alongside Pakistan and China could inadvertently signal a strategic shift away from its traditionally balanced approach. Pakistan’s reliance on Chinese hardware, coupled with its deep financial obligations, makes it an unreliable partner. Bangladesh aligning with these two nations risks being drawn into Beijing’s orbit, compromising its ability to make independent strategic decisions.

A Step Backwards for Bangladesh

The domestic narrative within Bangladesh is also at risk. By engaging closely with Pakistan, the government risks alienating sections of its population that value the legacy of the Liberation War. Aligning with a nation seen as complicit in one of the darkest chapters of Bangladesh’s history could weaken public trust in the government’s priorities.

Moreover, partnerships with Pakistan offer limited economic or strategic benefits. Pakistan’s economy, already teetering on the edge of collapse, lacks the capacity to contribute meaningfully to Bangladesh’s ambitious growth agenda. In contrast, India remains Bangladesh’s largest trading partner in South Asia, offering tangible economic benefits without the risks of dependency.

Pakistan’s Role in the Larger Game

Far from being an equal partner, Pakistan is being used as a conduit for China’s ambitions. Islamabad’s military ties with Beijing allow it to play the role of an intermediary in China’s outreach to Bangladesh. Exercises like Aman-25 demonstrate how Pakistan is facilitating China’s integration into the region’s security and defence frameworks. However, this dynamic primarily benefits China, offering it a foothold in Dhaka while further entrenching Pakistan’s dependency on Beijing.

India’s Perspective: A Stable Alternative

For Bangladesh, India offers a reliable partnership that respects its sovereignty and aligns with its developmental goals. The two nations share deep cultural, historical, and economic ties, which have fostered a mutually beneficial relationship over the years. India’s focus on equitable and sustainable partnerships stands in stark contrast to China’s exploitative model.

Furthermore, India’s consistent support for Bangladesh’s development, from energy projects to trade facilitation, demonstrates its commitment to the region’s stability and prosperity. By choosing to strengthen ties with India, Bangladesh can ensure its strategic autonomy and avoid the pitfalls of becoming enmeshed in Beijing’s power games.

Bangladesh’s growing ties with Pakistan may seem like a step toward diversifying its strategic partnerships, but the risks outweigh the benefits. Aligning with a nation that has become a pawn in China’s grand strategy could undermine Bangladesh’s hard-earned sovereignty and derail its developmental aspirations.

The ring leader in this equation appears to be China, which aims to gain a point of leverage in South Asia through platforms like Aman-25. For Bangladesh, the path forward should prioritise partnerships that respect its independence and contribute to its long-term stability. As history has shown, choosing partners wisely is key to maintaining sovereignty in an increasingly interconnected world.