India’s crude oil inflows from the US surged more than 50% in the first half of 2025, compared with the same period of 2024, while imports from Brazil rose 80% over the same period, as per data from the S&P Global commodity Insights.
The trend signals a growing affinity of Indian refiners for non-OPEC (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries) crude as the country looks to widen its source of supplies.
S&P noted that while sluggish purchases by China amid higher tariffs have opened up a window for India to ship in more US crude and work towards bridging the trade deficit with Washington, multiple recent diplomatic visits by Indian petroleum minister Hardeep Singh Puri and other government officials to Brazil to strengthen energy ties have started to yield results.
“Crude supplies from the US have been rising but have been limited to a few refiners in India. This allows room for other refiners to grow US imports further during the year,” said Abhishek Ranjan, South Asia oil research lead at S&P Global Commodity Insights.
According to data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea, India imported 271,000 barrels per day of crude oil from the US in the year’s first half, up around 51% from 180,000 b/d imported in the same period in 2024.
Indian refiners have been used to relatively large volumes of US crude in the past, but volumes had slowed down over the past two to three years when India turned to Russian crude after it started providing heavy discounts on its crude.
India’s appetite for US crude is again showing signs of revival amid renewed diplomacy with the new US government. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the US in mid-February and the pledge by the two world leaders to boost energy ties would mean increased US crude flows to India in the whole of 2025, both on a spot and term contract basis, S&P said.
Even the tariff scenario has implications for crude flows. The US announced reciprocal tariffs on India and a host of other nations on April 2 and then paused the increase for 90 days from April 10 to negotiate trade deals with these countries.
Furthermore, crude inflows from Brazil posted the sharpest growth in the six-month period, rising about 80% year over year to 73,000 b/d from nearly 41,000 b/d, the S&P data showed.
The Indian oil minister visited Brazil late last year to discuss how India could expand crude oil purchases from Brazil, as well as look for opportunities to collaborate on offshore deep and ultra-deepwater exploration and production projects. This month, Modi is also scheduled to visit Brazil amid deepening energy ties.
While the crude inflows from the US and Brazil have been increasing, Russia still remains the top supplier of crude oil to India.
Russia retained the position as India’s top crude supplier in January-June with shipments of 1.67 million b/d, up marginally from 1.66 million b/d in the same period a year earlier, S&P Global Commodities at Sea data showed.
“With a modest level of Russian imports in the early months of 2025, volumes are rising again, supported by lower crude prices that enable higher volumes to be procured below the price cap. As the global oversupply is expected to continue putting pressure on prices, we expect Russian flows to remain at current levels, if not increase,” Ranjan said.
Spot FOB (Free on Board) Pimorsk Urals crude rose above the G7-led $60/bbl price cap on Russian oil for much of the Israel-Iran conflict, exceeding the cap on June 13 and staying above it until June 24. Platts assessed Urals FOB Primorsk at $56.32/bbl on July 1.
While crude inflows into India from Iraq and Saudi Arabia declined by modest levels of 4% and 2%, respectively, volumes from Angola declined by a sharp 22% year over year in January-June. Inflows from Nigeria rose 26% to around 158,000 b/d in the six-month period.
“However, gradually rising crude throughput in Dangote refinery will mean that those Nigerian crudes will not be able to support crude demand growth from India. There might be a few months of higher crude imports, but they should decline on an annual basis in terms of imports to India,” Ranjan said.