India’s imports of Russian oil have remained resilient in September, with volumes in the first twelve days already surpassing the total imports recorded in August, as per an analysis of data provided by Kpler.
The country imported 1.87 million barrels per day of Russian oil as of Sep 12, significantly higher than 1.66 mbd imported in the entire month of August despite the rising scrutiny from the US over India’s purchases of Russian oil.
Contract lag: Why the surge doesn’t reflect current pressure
“While intake of Russian crude loadings has appeared steady in August and September, this reflects the timing of contracts rather than immediate reactions to external pressures,” said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining & Modeling at Kpler.
He pointed out that since deals are typically fixed 6–8 weeks in advance, August and early September arrivals stem from agreements made in July. “The true impact of new tariffs, payment challenges, or shipping frictions will only begin to surface from late September onwards or into October,” he said.
Meanwhile, India continues to balance between discounted Russian grades and reliable Middle Eastern supplies to ensure security and avoid overexposure to geopolitical shocks.
The country imported 844,000 bpd of crude oil from Iraq as of Sep 12, up from 730,000 bpd imported in August. Shipments from the US reached 271,000 bpd, surpassing August levels of 230,000 bpd.
India has imported 261,000 bpd of oil from Saudi Arabia till now while shipments from the UAE are tracking around 418,000 bpd.
However, Russian crude loadings to India in August and September are tracking at around 1.45 mbd in August and 1.3 mbd in September (till 12th Sep), lower than the 1.77 mbd average across the first seven months of 2025.
“These figures may still change, as several vessels currently bound for Port Said could update their final destinations while transiting the Suez Canal—a key route, with all Russian flows to India in July passing through Suez. Cargoes loaded in August are expected to discharge in September and October, and vessel tracking in the coming weeks will provide more clarity,” said Ritolia.
There has been an uptick in undisclosed cargoes departing Russian ports. Many of these tankers discharged their last two to three shipments in India, suggesting continued strong flows, although diversions to other Asian buyers remain possible. “Overall, regarding September buying, it’s still dynamic, but we’re seeing a continuation of August trends with a focus on diversification,” Ritolia said.
Reliance Industries imported 886,000 bpd of Russian oil at its Jamnagar refinery during the first twelve days of September, up from 644,000 bpd in August.
Nayara Energy’s Vadinar refinery also imported 328,000 bpd of Russian oil till Sep 12, as against 242,000 bpd imported last month, as per Kpler data.
Diversification and compliance: The new challenges for refiners
An interesting development to watch right now is Adani’s ban on sanctioned vessels at its ports – a move that could set a precedent for other port operators, Kpler pointed out.
This move directly impacts key crude hubs like Mundra, a critical gateway for Russian barrels into India. Adani’s Mundra port is the only one which receives Russian crude oil – accounting for close to 10% of India’s total crude imports. The port accounts for over 50% of arrivals are Russian crude, supplying refiners like HPCL-Mittal Energy (HMEL) and state-run Indian Oil.
Ritolia highlighted that refiners now face greater compliance pressures and may need to shift toward alternative logistics or non-sanctioned vessels for Russian crude purchases.
According to data provided by Kpler, HMEL, at its Mundra oil terminal, imported 155,000 barrels per day of Russian oil during the first twelve days of September, significantly higher than the total import of 137,000 bpd imported in the entire month of August. In September 2024, the refinery imported 167,000 bpd of Russian oil at the Mundra port.
Similarly, Indian Oil imported 95,000 bpd of Russian oil at its Mundra oil terminal as of Sep 12, while the shipments stood at 24,000 bpd in August and nil during September 2024.
Ritolia noted that as long as the vessels are compliant, these flows may not face issues.
“Adani Group’s decision to ban sanctioned vessels can indeed be seen as a compliance safeguard — not as a ban on Russian crude itself. While India has not officially prohibited Russian imports, the move helps Adani protect its ports from potential secondary sanctions or penalties from Western authorities. It also serves to de-risk trade finance, insurance, and shipping operations, since many banks and insurers refuse to engage with sanctioned vessels,” Ritolia said.
Kpler anticipates a greater diversification of crude sourcing as refiners balance affordability with energy security.
Russian barrels remain the cheapest option in India’s basket, $3-5/bbl cheaper than other sources on a landed cost basis, and without a formal directive from New Delhi, refiners are unlikely to leave even a $1/bbl discount unutilized.