India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the fourth quarter of financial year 2024-25 (Q4FY25) is set to be released on Friday at 4 pm, with economists anticipating an improvement in growth momentum driven by strong agricultural output and a rebound in services.
According to the data released earlier, the Indian economy bounced back in the October-December quarter (Q3 FY25), registering a growth of 6.2 per cent after hitting a seven-quarter low of 5.6 per cent in the July-September period. The third quarter performance helped retain the full year forecast at 6.5 per cent, as per the second advance estimates released on February 28. In FY25, the Indian economy in June, September and December quarters grew at 6.5 per cent, 5.6 per cent and 6.2 per cent, respectively.
RBI’s growth projection for Q4
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) projects the country’s economy to grow at 6.6 per cent in Q4 FY25. All eyes will be next on the June 6 RBI MPC meeting and Central Bank’s decision on rates in sync with the GDP trajectory.
ICRA expects Q4 growth at 6.9%
Rating agency ICRA projects Q4 GDP growth to improve to around 6.9 per cent, citing mixed signals from high-frequency indicators. “While the outlook for domestic consumption and Government investment remains largely intact, the exports outlook for H1 FY2026 appears increasingly uncertain, with the imposition of tariffs souring sentiment,” ICRA said.
At the full-year level, ICRA estimates GDP growth at 6.3 per cent for FY2025, with a slight moderation to 6.2 per cent in FY2026.
Nomura sees growth picking up
Japanese brokerage Nomura expects GDP growth to rise to 6.7 per cent year-on-year in Q1 FY26, up from 6.2 per cent in Q4 FY25. “Past data revisions suggest that average industrial output growth in Q1 2025 has inched up to 4 per cent y-o-y (vs 3.6 per cent previously) and was largely flat from Q4 2024, which poses some upside risk to the Q1 GDP data due this Friday,” the brokerage said.
Nomura noted that although private consumption, fixed investment, and export growth are likely to moderate, “a sharper contraction in import growth should mean a positive contribution from net exports to overall GDP growth.” On the supply side, the firm expects Gross Value Added (GVA) growth to rise to 6.4 per cent from 6.2 per cent in Q4. “Robust winter crop output should ensure continued strength in the agricultural sector,” it added.
While industrial growth may remain subdued, Nomura expects “a broad-based pickup in services growth.”
SBI expects Q4 FY25 GDP growth at 6.4–6.5%
State Bank of India (SBI) projects India’s GDP growth for the January–March 2025 quarter (Q4 FY25) to be in the range of 6.4 to 6.5 per cent , according to its internal estimates. Despite “weathering effects precipitated by global upheavals,” the Indian economy remains “largely resilient.” SBI notes that while consumer confidence and investments are showing buoyancy, they would “need counter intuitive drivers” for sustained momentum. The report adds that “early and better monsoon forecasts could rejuvenate both the expectations, as well as demand.”
India becomes world’s fourth-largest economy
The release of GDP data comes at a time when India has surpassed Japan to become the fourth-largest economy in the world, as confirmed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The development was reiterated by NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam during the 10th Governing Council meeting held recently.
“As of now, we are the fourth-largest economy and a $4 trillion economy,” he announced, pointing to a favorable global and domestic environment driving India’s economic ascent.
All eyes are now on the 4 pm release today, which will provide deeper insights into the economy’s performance at the close of FY25 and set the tone for the early quarters of FY26.