The finance ministry on Saturday said global energy prices and supplies continue to remain sources of concern and geopolitical conflicts may yet intensify, reigniting supply-chain pressures that have eased recently.
“If so, inflation may yet see a resurgence rather than a decline in 2023,” the department of economic affairs said in its report for September, as it cautioned against any premature celebration.
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Retail inflation in September hit a five-month high of 7.41%.
Nevertheless, it asserted that growth and stability concerns for India are less than that of the world at large halfway into FY23 and the country’s medium-term growth rate is likely higher than 6%. According to the International Monetary Fund, India’s real growth could be 6.8% in FY23 and 6.1% in FY24, way above the G-20 levels.