The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday reiterated its earlier forecast of ‘above normal’ monsoon rainfall during June-September this year, but said June might see “excess” rainfall.
There is also 90% chances of the rains being in the “normal-to-excess” range through the four-month (June-September) season, it added.
The met department marginally upgraded the quantum of rainfall expected during next four months to 106% of the benchmark long period average (LPA), against 105% of the benchmark stated last month in the first stage forecast.
Significantly, the met department stated that above normal rainfall of 106% for the “monsoon core zone” in the central parts of the country, consisting of key rain-fed regions of Gujarat, Madya Pradesh, Bihar, eastern Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Odisha. This boosts the prospects of kharif crop, the sowing of which is set to start soon.
In terms of regional distribution, ‘above-normal’ rainfall is expected “over most parts of the country except some areas of northwest, east and northeast India where below normal rainfall is very likely,” Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general, IMD, said, while releasing the second-stage long-range forecast.
For the first time, the IMD also released 36 sub-divisions specific forecasts for the monsoon season. The met department forecast above normal rainfall of over 108% of benchmark next month.
The monsoon forecast comes with a model error of +/- 4. According to estimates, month wise rainfall received during four monsoon months – June (16%), July (32%), August (30%) and September (22%).
The prospects of adequate rainfall boosts hopes of robust agriculture-sector output for a second year in row. Kharif sowing accounts for about 60% of the annual crop production. Monsoon rains also provide soil moisture for the winter crops.
Nearly half of the country’s farmland depends on monsoon rains for cultivation of kharif crops – paddy, pulses and oilseeds. In addition, adequate monsoon rains also provide sufficient soil moisture for sowing of the rabi or winter crops — wheat, pulses and oilseeds.
Given the forecast of ‘above normal’ monsoon rainfall, the government has set a record target of 354.64 million tonne (MT) for food grains production in the 2025-26 crop year (July-June).
The monsoon rains were ‘above normal’ last year with cumulative precipitation of 108% of LPA as predicted by the weather department initially. This was the best monsoon season in four years, and followed patchy ‘below normal’ monsoon rainfall of 94% of benchmark in 2023.
Around 75% of India’s annual rainfall occurs during the monsoon season, which replenishes water reservoirs, rivers, lakes, and groundwater, which are vital for irrigation and drinking water supplies. The monsoon rainfall also influences energy generation through hydropower and regulates regional ecosystems.
Though higher food grains production increases the chances of another year of high growth in agriculture, the gross value added (GVA) in this primary sector of the economy is also a function of prices fetched by the farmers and other stakeholders.
The minimum support prices (MSPs) which are implemented on the ground largely for wheat and rice, and contingent measure in the pulses category, also have a say on the agriculture growth.
GVA in agriculture and allied sectors grew by robust 3.8% (second advance estimates) in FY25, as compared with 1.4% in FY24. Crops account for roughly 55% of farm-sector GVA, and the livestock sector’s share is 30%.
Recently, agriculture minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan had said that the country is likely to achieve a 3.5% farm sector growth rate during 2025-26.
The monsoon set over Kerala coast on May 24, eight days ahead of the normal date of June 1. This was the earliest onset of monsoon in 16 years.
Typically, the southwest monsoon after onset over Kerala coast in early June covers the entire country by July. The monsoon rains start gradually receding from the north region from the middle of September.
The IMD classifies ‘normal’ rainfall between 96% and 104% of LPA. Rainfall between 90%-95% is considered ‘below normal’ while precipitation below 90% of LPA is termed ‘deficient’.
Rainfall in the range of 105-110% is considered ‘above normal’. The LPA is average rainfall received during 1971-2020 at 87 centimetres.