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(Reuters) Budget 2016: In a possible indication that the PM Narendra Modi government may have to borrow more to raise pay for government employees courtesy the 7th Pay Commission report, and bail out crisis-hit banks, the Economic Survey 2016 has pointed out that Arun Jaitley should review the mid-term fiscal deficit strategy. (Reuters)
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Budget 2016: The report called India "a haven of stability" in a gloomy international landscape but, as Group of 20 finance ministers gathered for talks in Shanghai, warned too of possible currency turmoil in Asia after China's recent devaluation. The Economic Survey, which sets the scene for Jaitley's third budget on Monday, forecast the Indian economy would grow by between 7.0 percent and 7.75 percent in the 2016/17 fiscal year that starts on April 1. That would be in line with this year's expected outturn of 7.6 percent but below earlier expectations that growth would accelerate to over 8 percent. (PTI)
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4. The Gross National Income (GNI) at 2011-12 prices is now estimated at Rs 112.13 trillion as against Rs 112.14 trillion estimated earlier for 2015-16. In 2014-15, it was Rs 104.28 trillion. (Reuters)
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Budget 2016: The report, written by economic adviser Arvind Subramanian, said that "credibility and optimality" argued in favour of sticking to next year's deficit target of 3.5 percent of GDP – phrasing that left room for an upward revision. "The time is right for a review of the medium-term fiscal framework," the text, handed out in parliament, said. Analysts said Subramanian was flagging some backsliding on the deficit – if not next year then the year after – to account for an economy that is doing less well than the headline figures suggest.
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Budget 2016: "My sense is that there is a 20-30 basis points slippage coming in the fiscal deficit number, so basically I'm expecting a 3.7 or 3.8 percent fiscal deficit number for 2017," said Ritika Mankar Mukherjee, senior economist at Ambit Capital. Subramanian's cautious advice to raise the deficit has been rejected by central bank governor Raghuram Rajan, who argues that India should keep its powder dry in case the weakening world economy tips into recession. Indian bonds, shares and the rupee gained on a view that the government was at least not throwing fiscal caution to the winds. (AP)
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