The fifth batch of three Israeli hostages were exchanged for 183 imprisoned Palestinians on Saturday amidst accusations by Hamas that Israel had breached the deal by preventing adequate aid shipments of tents and caravans every day into Gaza. As if all this weren’t bad enough, there is heightened uncertainty whether the multi-phase ceasefire agreement will hold up following US President Donald Trump’s controversial statements that Gaza would be turned over to the US when the fighting ends and Palestinians have been resettled elsewhere. This will only embolden Israel to resile from its commitment to implement phase two and three of the agreement for a permanent cessation of hostilities and reconstruction of the largely demolished Strip. The Gaza war was triggered by the incursion of Hamas forces into Israel, killing 1,200 people and taking 250 hostages on October 7, 2023. The first phase of the ongoing deal that kicked in on January 19 extends for six weeks in which 33 Israeli captives will be released for 1,900 Palestinians. So far, 16 Israeli hostages and five Thai nationals and 766 jailed Palestinians have been exchanged.
At a time when talks are to begin for the second phase in which the remaining 65 male hostages will be freed in return for Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza and a permanent ceasefire, Trump’s statements make the multi-phase process somewhat challenging. There is also a potential third phase in which the bodies of dead Israeli hostages and Hamas militants would be exchanged and the imperative of Gaza’s reconstruction will be addressed. Trump has taken care of that with his proposals to forcibly relocate Palestinians to neighbouring countries and rebuild the Strip into the “Riviera of the Middle East”. According to Hamas, this is a recipe for creating chaos and tension in the region. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, for his part, has vowed to resume war with Hamas in Gaza, in his most explicit pledge to reject a lasting ceasefire. Trump’s views have also been enthusiastically welcomed by the ultranationalists who support Netanyahu. Israel’s defence minister has asked the army to prepare a plan that would allow Gazans to leave “voluntarily”.
The tenuous ceasefire process has no doubt been complicated by Trump’s views on forcibly relocating Palestinians, which have been condemned all over the world including West Asia. The upshot is that “Trump breathed new life into a far-right Israeli dream: Gaza without Palestinians” as perceptively observed by Kim Ghattas in the Financial Times. The US President is not exactly a disinterested peacemaker in the Gaza conflict. During his first term as president, he recognised Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. Israel’s settlements in the occupied West Bank were rendered legal under US law. In his second term, Trump has gone much further on Gaza that renders the prospects of Palestinians having their own land somewhat elusive. Trump has also sanctioned officials who work on the International Criminal Court’s investigations of Israel’s war crimes in Gaza. Since October 7, 2023, those who have truly suffered the most are the hapless Palestinians, of whom 62,000 have so far been killed or presumed dead and 112,000 injured and full-blown humanitarian crisis conditions afflict the Gazan citizenry. As the prospects of the multi-phase deal hang by a thread and hopes of a Palestinian homeland recede by the day, Hamas’s armed resistance will only further intensify imperilling peace and security for Israel.